\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
The new leadership has a clear strategy and a new round of business cycle can be expected. On the evening of February 18, 2022, the company announced that Mr. Zeng Congqin served as the Secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the group and the Secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the company; Mr. Zou Tao is the general manager of the group and no longer the general manager of the joint stock company; Mr. Jiang Wenge is the general manager of the joint stock company. The new leading group defines the development ideas of the 14th five year plan, namely: 1. Ecological, 2. Quality Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , 3. Establish a benchmark for cultural construction, 4. Build digital Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , implement digital transformation of marketing, and 5. Improve the level of governance; And put forward the “5111” development goals: 1) break into the world’s top 500; 2) The sales revenue of the main business of the wine industry has exceeded 100 billion; 3) The sales revenue of diversified industries has exceeded 100 billion; Strive to build a world-class wine enterprise with excellent products, excellent brands, leading innovation and modern governance; It also puts forward the development goals of “2118”: 1) the production capacity of raw wine reaches 200000 tons, 2) the storage capacity of base wine reaches 1 million tons, 3) the sales revenue exceeds 100 billion, and 4) the total profit reaches 80 billion. The new leading group has made clear the revenue target of 100 billion yuan of the joint-stock company at the end of the 14th five year plan, with cagr4 of about 11%. We believe that the completion of personnel adjustment will help to promote the steady progress of the company’s marketing and sales work, the corporate governance is expected to be optimized, and a business cycle driven by a new round of leading group will be started.
In 2021, the business indicators will be completed steadily. According to the disclosure of the company’s performance express, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 66.2 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of about 15% at the same time, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 23.35 billion yuan, an increase of about 17% at the same time. The 14th five year plan has made a smooth start. Baijiu industry benefited from the upgrading of demand side consumption, the demand side of high-end Baijiu was growing steadily, the supply and demand of thousand price was balanced, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) brand power was leading. According to the feedback of the twenty-fifth “12. 18” conference, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) realized a stable price increase in 2021, and the terminal business moved to a new high level. The volume and price relations were striving for good health, and the current p51 price was about 970 yuan. Classic strategic product Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) was successfully introduced into the market, occupying the price band of 2000 yuan. It is expected that the company is expected to continue to benefit from the steady growth of the structural prosperity trend of high-end wine; In addition, in 2021, the total distribution brands of series liquor were cleared and returned, with 509 products. The number of brand products was reduced by 80%, and the focus on self owned brands, medium and high price brands and high-quality brands was more obvious.
Focus on steady and high-quality development in 2022. In 2022, the development idea of “taking the lead in stability and seeking progress in stability” was put forward, which is specifically reflected in: 1) we should coordinate the general requirements of the central government for economic work; 2) Ensure that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is better than the average level of the industry and the growth momentum ahead of the first echelon; 3) Taking into account the tactical considerations of a stable market order and promoting sustained, steady and high-quality development by dealing with the relationship between volume and price, production and marketing and supply and demand; In 2022, the company will continue to control the volume and price of the eighth generation and the fifth generation, increase the channel profit, and continue to cultivate and shape the brand of the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . It is expected that the company’s performance is expected to continue to grow steadily. We believe that the company’s performance is expected to grow steadily in 2022, and the growth in the off peak season is more balanced.
Investment suggestion: the company’s 14th five year plan has ended steadily in its first year, the new leadership strategy is clear, and a new round of business cycle can be expected. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 66.2/75.7/87.9 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 23.5/272/32.7 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price will be 28 / 24 / 20x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price of puwu is lower than expected, the channel confidence is damaged, and the competition of 1000 yuan price belt is intensified.
