\u3000\u30006 Zhongrun Resources Investment Corporation(000506) 00050)
Key investment points
Event: in 2021, China United Network Communications Limited(600050) achieved an operating revenue of 327854 billion yuan, yoy + 7.90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 6.305 billion yuan, yoy + 14.20%; The net profit deducted from non parent company is RMB 6.452 billion, yoy + 18.40%; EPS 0.21 yuan; The net operating cash flow was 111972 billion yuan, yoy + 4.32%, and the performance was in line with our expectations.
Coordinated development of three major businesses and continuous improvement of market share: China United Network Communications Limited(600050) mobile business, fixed network business and industrial Internet will develop well in 2021. In terms of mobile business, in 2021, the operating revenue was 164.1 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year, and the mobile ARPU increased by 4.3% year-on-year. The transformation of "platform + Network + X" product model was promoted. By the end of 2021, there were 690000 available 5g base stations, 154.93 million 5g package users, and the penetration rate exceeded the industry average, reaching 48.9%; In terms of fixed network business, broadband revenue reached 44.8 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. The ARPU of broadband access users reached 41.3 yuan, and the cumulative number of broadband users reached 95.05 million. Broadband satisfaction remained the leading in the industry; In terms of industrial Internet, the operating revenue in 2021 was 54.8 billion yuan, and the operating revenue of big data was 2.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48.7%. The market share remained the first among telecom operators for three consecutive years. In terms of the Internet of things, the operating revenue in 2021 was 6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43%, and the number of Internet of things connections exceeded 300 million.
The resonance between cloud and data center business lays a solid foundation for future performance improvement: in 2021, "Unicom cloud" achieved revenue of 16.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46.3%, forming a dual engine of cloud native and virtualization, integrating "Unicom chain" and artificial intelligence, and the daily processing capacity of big data platform exceeded 200tb; Actively implement the project of "computing from the east to the west", build a new data center pattern of "5 + 4 + 31 + X", and coordinate the development of digital network, digital cloud and cloud edge. The total computing power of the whole network has reached 350pflops and the scale of computing power has reached 11.38 million core vcpu; Build a unified digital base, covering 6 data centers and 36000 + nodes, realize bmdoe global connectivity, complete business penetration tests in 31 provinces, and support 1043 cloud applications. By 2021, the total number of data centers has reached 312000; Build a multi cloud cooperation ecosystem, enrich the number of heterogeneous cloud providers, reach cooperation with Alibaba and Huawei, and create a hybrid multi cloud solution of "multi cloud management + Unicom cloud + X". We believe that with the continuous enhancement of the company's independent R & D vitality, the company's innovation business income will continue to increase steadily.
Pay attention to the return to shareholders and increase the proportion of dividends: guided by 5g, the company continues to create a smart experience and comply with the upgrading trend of digital consumption. The company continues to make efforts to innovate the b-end business. Among them, the data center and cloud business have a rapid momentum and a large market space; At the same time, the company attaches great importance to shareholders' return. The board of directors recommends paying a final dividend of 0.0391 yuan per share (including tax) and an interim dividend of 0.0488 yuan per share (including tax). The total annual dividend is 0.0879 yuan per share (including tax), an increase of 31.4% year-on-year. We believe that at present, the company's performance tends to be stable, undervalued and high dividends, and there is still room for valuation repair and improvement.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the steady improvement of the company's performance and the strong driving force for the development of emerging businesses, we lowered the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 9.131/10.320 billion yuan to 7.034/7.904 billion yuan in 20222023, and expected the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 8.906 billion yuan in 2024; The EPS forecast for 20222023 is lowered from 0.29/0.33 yuan to 0.23/0.26 yuan, and the EPS is expected to be 0.29 yuan in 2024. The current market value corresponds to 16 / 14 / 13 times of PE in 20222024. Based on 5g development and the wave of digital transformation, the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the pressure of raising speed and reducing fees increases; 5g user penetration is lower than expected; The business growth of cloud computing and data center is lower than expected; The promotion of independent research and development is weak.
