\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 867 Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) )
Events
The company issued the 2021 performance express. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 9.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.07%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.21%, and a basic earnings per share of 1.13 yuan.
The company issued the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 2.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.11%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 2.18 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.01%.
Key investment points
The gold wholesale business boosted the company's revenue scale, and the net profit of 21q4 fell year-on-year due to external factors: on the revenue side, the company achieved a revenue of 9.155 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 80.07%, an increase of 68.32% over the same period in 19 years; 21q3 and Q4 achieved revenue of RMB 3.684 billion and 2.682 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 119.9% and 54.6%. The high growth of revenue side means that the company began to introduce provincial representative forces in 21h2, increase terminal stores, expand and strengthen gold jewelry business. Under the condition of stable fluctuation of 21h2 gold price, the shipment of gold products of the company increased significantly. On the net profit side, in 2021, the company realized the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.21%, an increase of 23.89% over the same period in 19 years. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q3 and 21q4 was 396 million yuan and 223 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.68% and - 26.1% respectively. The net profit of the company in the fourth quarter fell year-on-year. We judged that: 1) the bad debt provision of the company's accounts receivable increased; 2) The sporadic epidemic situation in the key areas of the company's provincial representative affected the gold shipment, and the company and the provincial representative were still in the running in period, the effect was not fully released, and the number of units superimposed with the year-on-year high price of 21h2 gold decreased; 3) Franchisees' orders were less affected than expected by the epidemic.
The provincial agent force helped the company speed up the opening of stores and strengthen the positioning of main gold products: in terms of channels, the company launched the provincial agent business in the second half of 21, effectively improved the efficiency of supply chain operation and capital turnover, and stimulated the vitality of channel development; In 2021, the company's offline stores increased by 313 to 4502, and 21q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 increased by 2, 66, 100 and 145 respectively. The expansion speed of stores accelerated quarter by quarter. In terms of products, the company reorganized the product positioning, positioned diamond inlay products as fist products and gold products as the main products, gradually made efforts in gold products, launched " Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) extraordinary ancient French gold series" products, built six product lines of "happy childhood, romantic flowering, happy marriage, auspicious life, beautiful life and bright life", and strengthened fashion Research, development and promotion of cultural and creative gold. In terms of operation, the company is committed to improving the refined operation and management level of terminal stores and tapping the endogenous growth power. It is expected that with the promotion of the company's "eight pillars" (high-end, image, area, scale, product, marketing, digitization and incentive mechanism) to terminals this year, the store efficiency will be strengthened and gradually enter the stage of high-quality growth.
In 2022, the boom in gold jewelry continued, and the company performed well from January to February: according to the China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Association, the actual consumption of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) in 2021 increased by 36.53% year-on-year and 11.78% year-on-year compared with 2019, of which gold jewelry increased by 5.18% compared with 2019, and the consumption of gold headwear products such as hard foot gold and Gufa gold increased strongly. According to the "2022 China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Market Outlook" of the World Gold Council, from New Year's Eve to the Lantern Festival in 2022, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption increased by 12% year-on-year, and gold consumption remained high in 2022. From January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.319 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 203.11%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 218 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.01%, and a net interest rate of about 9.4%.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the company will introduce provincial representative forces to inject new impetus to seize market share, and the net store opening speed will accelerate quarter by quarter. Considering the increase in the proportion of gold jewelry products with low gross profit margin, combined with the company's 2021 performance express, we adjust the profit forecast, and predict that the earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.12, 1.36 and 1.63 yuan, The PE of the corresponding company in 22 years is 12 times, maintaining the "buy-b" proposal.
Risk tip: the jewelry industry is sinking and the market competition is intensifying; The company's new brand cultivation is less than expected; The first and second tier cities are not stationed as expected; China's epidemic spread affects terminal retail
