\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 195 Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) )
Event: the company released the performance express of 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 12.422 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of + 23.59%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was + 1.359 billion yuan, with a year-on-year return of + 2.821 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 2.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.27%; The basic earnings per share was 4.69 yuan / share, a year-on-year increase of + 20.57%.
Comments:
All business segments continued to improve, and Q4 revenue growth picked up month on month compared with Q3. The company's traditional core business converter and wall moat are becoming deeper and deeper, and the growth trend is stable. At the same time, the company accurately grasped the business opportunities of new energy and intelligent ecology, and actively developed new categories such as new energy charging gun / pile, intelligent lock and intelligent clothes dryer, so as to provide strong driving force for the growth of the company's revenue. From the perspective of single quarter, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.409 billion yuan in Q4, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.39%. The single quarter revenue hit a record high in the past, and the growth rate of single quarter revenue was significantly warmer than Q3 (+ 5.08%). We believe that the company's new energy charging gun / pile and intelligent business products have been listed in large quantities, helping the company achieve excellent quarterly revenue performance.
The continuous high operation of raw material prices has weakened the hedging effect and put short-term pressure on profitability. In terms of the company's single quarter profit, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 607 million yuan in Q4, a year-on-year increase of - 15.05%; In a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 576 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 14.20%. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company after non deduction in a single quarter fell 7.37pcpts to 16.90% month on month compared with Q3, and the profitability was under pressure. We believe that the reason is that (1) the prices of copper, aluminum and plastics, the main raw materials of the company's products, continue to run at a high level, resulting in the weakening of the hedging effect of the company. (2) The company did not raise the price in Q3, but the effect of the price increase in the early stage was gradually digested by the continuous rise in the price of raw materials. (3) The scale of the company's new business has increased rapidly, and its gross profit margin may be weaker than the company's core categories such as wall opening and converters. The change of business structure has reduced the company's profit level. In the future, with the gradual release of the scale effect of new business and the appropriate price increase according to the pressure of raw material cost, the profitability may pick up.
Investment suggestion: the leading position of core categories is stable, new business expansion is smooth, and the momentum of long-term growth remains unchanged. The company has a deep moat at the channel end, the core categories continue to grow steadily, and new businesses such as new energy charging guns / piles and intelligent products develop smoothly. The impact of antitrust punishment on the company's business end is limited, and the long-term growth momentum remains unchanged. Considering that the current raw material cost pressure still exists, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be 3.4 billion yuan / 4.0 billion yuan respectively (original forecast value: 3.6 billion / 4.27 billion yuan), corresponding to the current market value PE of 24 / 21x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the expansion of new business is less than expected, the real estate market fluctuates, and the price of raw materials fluctuates
