first, “spring agitation”, it is suggested to continue to focus on the industrial / policy clues under the “double carbon new cycle” and the industrial medium-term prosperity expectation under the guidance of the “high-frequency expected prosperity observation model” .
second, focus on the 14 sub areas of the “double carbon new cycle” under “first established” and “later broken”! based on the current macro guidance of energy development and carbon emission structure adjustment, we should pay attention to the two investment main lines of “first stand” and “second break” in the “double carbon” cycle, with a total of 14 sub areas – (1) the “first stand” investment main line is carried out along power generation (photovoltaic, wind power, nuclear power), power transmission (UHV), power storage (energy storage) and new energy vehicles (Power Battery + vehicle + charging pile); (2) The main line of “post breaking” investment is carried out along the traditional high emission fields and energy-saving and environmental protection industries, such as industry (special steel and electrolytic aluminum) + building (prefabricated building) + railway transportation + coal (coal chemical industry) + pollution and solid waste treatment, etc.
third, how to judge the investment cost performance of the subdivided field of “double carbon new cycle” based on the “win odds” framework? based on the “win odds” analysis framework, we establish a “win odds” 7-dimensional scoring model for the new dual carbon cycle. The higher the score, the higher the investment cost performance of the industry at present. Specifically, the industries with certain investment cost performance at present include: (1) the first level: power battery, coal chemical industry and railway transportation; (2) Second gear: charging pile, photovoltaic, aluminum; (3) Third gear: prefabricated building; (4) The fourth gear: UHV, energy storage industry, special steel, energy conservation and environmental protection.
fourth, in the restless stage of spring, how to use the “high-frequency expected prosperity observation model” to judge the medium-term prosperity expectation of the industry? since 15 years, during the turbulent spring period, the performance of the industry with continuous improvement in the medium-term prosperity expectation has been significantly dominant. By observing the marginal change of prosperity expectation at the end of December relative to the end of November in the “high frequency expected prosperity observation model”, we find the industry with the most obvious improvement in current prosperity expectation.
configuration suggestions: A-Shares are “restless in spring” to seize the “double carbon new cycle” and economic changes. at present, some investors are worried that the huge IPO of China Mobile will have a negative impact on the market. We don’t think we need to worry too much. At present, the market is still in the “feasible stage”. We suggest to continue to focus on the industrial / policy clues under the “double carbon new cycle” and the medium-term prosperity expectation of the industry under the guidance of the “high-frequency expected prosperity observation model”, and layout the restlessness in spring. It is suggested to continue the balance between high area and low area for industry configuration, (1) reduce the reserve requirement and stabilize the real estate chain (securities companies, white power and consumer building materials); (2) “Double carbon new cycle” + steady growth of new infrastructure (power battery, green power operation, coal chemical industry and military industry); (3) Ppi-cpi scissors difference convergence (food processing).
risk tip: repeated epidemic control, the global economic downturn exceeded expectations, and overseas uncertainty.
(Dai Kang’s strategic world)
