The policy synergy is gradually formed. It is expected that the economic stabilization and the recovery of the credit cycle will be verified in January. After the new year, the accelerated influx of incremental funds and the active increase of stock funds are expected to open the “good start” market. After the preview of the blue chip market in the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected to spread, and the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year. First of all, the policies in the first quarter are expected to move from relay to joint force. There is sufficient policy guarantee for stabilizing the economy and market. It is expected that the economic bottom recovery trend in the fourth quarter will be verified in January. At the same time, the recovery of the credit cycle will also improve the market’s expectations for the future economy. Secondly, it is expected that the “good start” of fund issuance will drive the influx of incremental funds, the game behavior of stock funds will decline and actively increase positions after the next year, and the market began to form a consensus on the market at the beginning of the year. Finally, under the loose policy and mild macro and market environment, the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year, the incremental capital structure style may be more diversified. It is expected that the blue chip market will gradually spread in the dimension of industry and style. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to continue to actively participate in the “good start” market around the “three lows”.
The policy synergy of is gradually formed. It is expected that the economic stabilization and credit cycle recovery will be verified in January
1) in the first quarter, the policy is expected to move from relay to joint force, and there is sufficient policy guarantee to stabilize the economy and market. after the central economic work conference, various ministries and commissions have successively studied and issued policies. It is expected that the policy level will gradually see joint forces from the first quarter of 2022. From the perspective of stabilizing the economy, new infrastructure, stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption are the three main starting points. It is expected that in the new infrastructure field, focusing on the goal of “double carbon”, accelerating the construction of new power system, industrial Internet and modern logistics system will be the focus; The core policy tone in the real estate field is “trust without action”. The developer level ensures that the reasonable financing needs are met, and the resident level credit is appropriately relaxed to better meet the reasonable housing needs of property buyers; In the field of consumption, we expect to accelerate the upgrading of consumption echelons of rural residents, promote the upgrading of household appliances, automobiles and other optional durable goods in rural areas, and expand the scope of use of provident fund. From the perspective of stabilizing the market, in the context of promoting the comprehensive registration system, the policy priority of preventing sharp fluctuations in the capital market is higher. “Market stability, policy stability and expected stability” will become the main tone of relevant policies in the capital market in the new year.
2) it is expected that the economic bottom recovery trend in the fourth quarter will be verified in January. we expect that the economic data for December 2021 and the fourth quarter released in January will comprehensively verify the warming trend of the economy in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. The macro group of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department believes that the growth rate of industrial added value in December is expected to continue to pick up under the influence of “ensuring supply and stabilizing price”, leading production and operation of manufacturing industry and catching up at the end of the year; Manufacturing investment remains high and infrastructure investment stabilizes. In December, China’s manufacturing investment is expected to continue the growth trend of more than 7% in a single month, and the annual growth rate of fixed asset investment is expected to reach 5.1%; The improvement of automobile sales has pushed the overall consumption data to pick up moderately. It is expected that the nominal growth rate of consumption in December will be 4.7%, and the moderate recovery trend will continue in the future; Under the background of strong overseas consumer spending demand and slow recovery of global supply chain, exports can still maintain strong growth. It is expected that the single month year-on-year growth rate of exports in December will reach 21%, which is basically the same as that in November.
3) the credit cycle picked up and improved the market’s expectations for the future economy. The macro group of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Research Department predicts that the growth rate of social finance will continue to rise in December, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.4% and M2 growth rate of 8.7%. We expect that several factors will continue to accelerate the expansion of credit in the first quarter of 2022 and confirm the bottom inflection point of the credit cycle in the fourth quarter of 2021. First, it is expected that local government special bonds will be issued in advance in the first quarter, continuing the rhythm of rapid issuance since the third quarter of 2021; Secondly, under the restriction of housing loan concentration management, the release of residential mortgage loans will show the seasonal characteristics of “high before low”. It is expected that the first quarter will be the most relaxed period of mortgage loans in the whole year; Thirdly, the first quarter is the peak of the maturity of offshore dollar bonds of real estate development enterprises. On the premise of keeping the bottom line of systemic risk, financial institutions will probably increase their support for the reasonable financing needs of developers; Finally, with the further effect of the measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, the rapid recovery of the demand for replenishment of raw materials and the recovery of production of midstream industrial enterprises will also drive the growth rate of new short-term loans of enterprises to rise sharply. We expect that some high-frequency research data will verify that the credit cycle has entered the expansion range in January and improve the market’s expectations for future economic resilience.
after the new year, it is expected that the accelerated influx of incremental funds and the active increase of stock funds will open the “good start” market
1) it is expected that the “good start” of fund issuance will drive the influx of incremental funds. in December, the new issuance of public funds continued to pick up, and the strength of sales channels appeared. In terms of active equity products, as of December 30, active products had issued a total of 70.6 billion yuan, up from + 29.6% in November; Passive equity products issued a total of 25.8 billion yuan, up + 45.5% month on month in November. In the past five weeks, the average issuance scale of new products has returned to the level when the subscription heat was high in the third quarter. In the past, the recent issuance scale of 1-year closed fof products with weak willingness to actively purchase can also reach the average level of about 1.5 billion yuan / piece. In addition, the public offering products being issued and to be issued will be intensively established in January and will gradually bring incremental funds to the market. As of December 31, the total number of equity products in the issuance stage and approved for issuance has reached 119, exceeding the monthly average of about + 30% in the fourth quarter of 2021. The products being issued are mainly the managers with the largest scale in the industry, of which the assets under management of the managers corresponding to active equity products in 3q21 reach an average of 7.5 billion yuan, including several star fund managers with a management scale of more than 10 billion yuan. According to our investigation and understanding of channel preheating, it is expected that the new development fund will have a high probability of a “good start” after the next year.
2) after the new year, the game behavior of stock funds declined and actively increased positions, and the market began to form a consensus on the market at the beginning of the year. the root cause behind the disordered market style in December is the game process of stock fund position reduction and position adjustment. For high-level varieties, institutional funds dare not continue to increase their positions, on the one hand, they are worried that the annual report and industry data in 2021 are not as expected, on the other hand, they are worried that there may be game behavior in the fierce ranking competition at the end of the year. For low-end varieties, a large number of growth oriented institutions “disdain” to increase their positions. They believe that the effect of stabilizing the economy remains to be verified, and it is difficult for policies to stimulate on a large scale. The significance of a round of valuation repair in the game is not significant. We estimate that the positions of various active equity products in late December generally decreased by 3-5 percentage points compared with the end of the third quarter; In addition, according to our channel research, the average position of small and medium-sized private placement products has also decreased by 2 percentage points in the last week, 5 percentage points lower than the level at the end of September. From the historical experience, the stock funds will usually resume entry in the first quarter of the next year after reducing their positions in the fourth quarter of the previous year. Taking the common stock fund as an example, the average position reduction in the fourth quarter of 2005-2020 is 3.3 percentage points, but the position increase will resume by 4.6 percentage points in the first quarter of the next year. After the new year, with the expectation of a “good start”, the probability of stock funds will actively focus on the layout of 2022, the game will be reduced, and a consensus on the restless market in spring will be gradually formed. It is expected that the theme speculation will cool down, the blue chip main line will heat up again, and the market will return to the characteristics of institutional market.
after the preview of blue chip market in the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected that will spread, and the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year is
1) under loose policy and moderate macro and market environment, the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year. the first quarter was the most relaxed period in the policy environment of the whole year. The steady growth measures improved the expectations of Chinese and overseas investors for China’s economic boom trend, and the steady market measures continued to relay, enhancing investors’ expectations for the steady rise of the capital market and prominent structural opportunities. With the formation of policy synergy, the improvement of macro expectations and abundant market liquidity are expected to resonate, which is expected to greatly stimulate the market’s risk appetite. At the level of investor behavior, the stock funds may be distributed in advance before the admission of new development funds. From the current channel sales preheating situation, the “good start” of the new development fund is almost a foregone conclusion. Considering that the centralized position building period of the new development fund in January is in February and March, January is the best layout time point for both the stock funds planned to increase positions and the newly admitted incremental funds. Once a consensus is formed, investors will probably rush to the layout “good start” market in January. In contrast, in the second half of the year, under internal inflation constraints and external monetary constraints, China’s macro policies are expected to gradually return to normal and focus more on the opportunities brought by the relative prosperity of the industry. Therefore, on the whole, it is expected that the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year, and January will be the best admission time point in the first quarter.
2) the style of incremental capital structure is more diversified, and it is expected that the blue chip market will gradually spread in the dimension of industry and style. compared with the new products in the third quarter of 2021, which mainly come from managers who are good at the field of new energy, the style of fund managers who plan to issue new funds in January is more diversified and the style characteristics of incremental funds are richer. Among them, about 10 of the 33 star fund managers held heavy positions in new energy in the third quarter of 2021. Among the remaining 23, most of them used to focus on “balanced value”. Their heavy positions in the third quarter were concentrated in industries such as medicine, traditional midstream cycle manufacturing, consumption, electronics and so on. From the new product positioning of its current public plan, there are fewer labels related to “new energy”. Even some fund managers with heavy positions in the new energy sector in the third quarter put more emphasis on mixed configuration for the style positioning of new products. In addition, considering that the overall performance of high boom sectors such as new energy in 2021 was poor in the fourth quarter, the game intensified significantly at the end of the fourth quarter, which also reflected investors’ concerns that the annual report or industry boom was lower than expected to a certain extent. With the adjustment of valuation, some leading companies in subdivided sectors have gradually entered the allocation range. Overall, we expect that the market in the first quarter will show the characteristics of gradual diffusion of blue chip market.
3) continue to actively participate in the “three low positions”. from the perspective of industry configuration, we continue to recommend the “three low positions”. However, as some industries realized the upward space ahead of time in the fourth quarter, some industries that were originally high also made significant adjustments. We also made corresponding adjustments to industries that meet the “three low” standards, focusing on varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be low, and focusing on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as complete vehicle lithium battery cell , photovoltaic equipment, etc; In addition, some consumer industries represented Baijiu, which have been represented by the fourth quarter, have already fulfilled the larger valuation repair. In the first quarter of this year, we suggested that we should pay attention to ‘s tax-free and entertainment content consumption , which is still at a low level. For the varieties with relatively low valuation, focus on the high-quality developers , building materials and home enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, the Hong Kong stock Internet leader after the impact of China stock market, and the fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials; High boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment , special chip devices and military industry promoted by localization logic.
risk factors
The global epidemic situation is repeated and the vaccination is not as expected; The friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology trade has intensified; The progress of China’s economic recovery is less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad tightened more than expected.
( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) study)
