After the collective correction of core assets and the counter attack of small and medium-sized stocks in 2021, how the market will operate in 2022 is the main topic concerned by investors.
2021 is a year full of uncertainty for the capital market. The “double reduction” policy has a great impact on the education industry. Internet antitrust has also significantly reduced the valuation of some head companies, and the centralized purchase policy has a great impact on the pharmaceutical industry
How will the market perform in 2022? As the saying goes, “the plan of the year lies in spring”. After new year’s day in 2022, it officially enters the new year trading time. The spring market may have a certain impact on the market trend of the whole year. Analysts pointed out that the changes in economic fundamentals and policy tone, as well as the relative position of the market before the market, determine whether the market will start in spring. It is expected that the force of policy next year will be the support of market operation, and the “spring agitation” of A-Shares is expected to open.
The Securities Times reporter combed the market trend after the new year’s day in recent 11 years and found that from the end of each year to the beginning of each year, the market will have certain expectations for the “spring agitation” market. The market will rise more than 60% on the first trading day after the new year’s day, and the rise probability in the first week after the new year’s day will be higher. For a long time, the market rose more than 50% in January, and the overall rise probability is high.
the probability of market rise in the first week after the festival exceeds 70%
Before New Year’s day, with the phased realization of loose expectations, investors’ differences on policy tone, real estate risk and other issues gradually moved from the early stage to the same, and the market staged a wave of “spring agitation” in advance.
After new year’s day, the new year market opens. According to the statistics of the reporter of the securities times, since 2011, on the first trading day after the new year’s day, the overall rising probability of the market is high, the rising probability of the index exceeds 60%, and the rising probability of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem is more than 50%.
In the first week after the festival, the probability of market rise will be higher. The data show that the probability of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen composite index rising in the first week after new year’s day exceeds 70%, and the probability of gem index rising is more than 60%.
In terms of lengthening the cycle, during January, the probability of the market rising was more than 50%. Among them, the market rose well in January 2013 and 2018, which were 5.13% and 5.25% respectively.
However, there are also special circumstances. After new year’s day in 2016, the market fell greatly, affecting the market situation. In January 2016, the Shanghai stock index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index all fell by more than 20%. The market had a bad start, which had a great impact on the market operation throughout the year. In 2016, the three indexes continued to fluctuate, and all failed to recover the decline in January 2016.
In January this year, can the market continue to perform the “spring agitation” market? The analysis shows that this mainly depends on the changes of economic fundamentals and policy tone, as well as the relative position of the market before the market.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) believes that the main driving forces for the restlessness in spring are the centralized liquidity launch period in January and the good expectations of the two sessions held in March for future economic policies, and the improvement of liquidity and risk appetite, including the expectation of future policies, which has a greater impact on market performance.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) the analysis points out that the driving force of spring agitation is mainly divided into liquidity driving force and economic prosperity driving force. On the whole, the small cap style is dominated by liquidity and the large cap style is dominated by economic prosperity. Driven by economic prosperity, the style continuity before and after spring agitation is strong.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) believes that under the expectation of “wide credit and stable growth”, the economic growth may be gradually repaired, the restless market this spring is expected to continue, and the cycle finance may become the main line due to its high profitability; The consumer industry may also have a higher increase due to strong demand.
the military industry sector is expected to lead the rise
Driven by liquidity and risk appetite, the military industry, mechanical equipment, electronics, banking and other sectors performed well in January, and the consumer categories related to the festival effect, such as household appliances, automobiles, travel transportation, commerce and retail, also had a high probability of rise.
According to the statistics of the reporter of the securities times, in the 11 years since 2016, the military industry has increased eight times during January, with an increase probability of 72.73%, with the highest increase probability.
Why is the military industry prone to rise every January? According to the analysis, the first quarter is the time for the landing of large orders in the military industry. The growth of the performance of the first quarter report and the military expenditure of the two sessions are expected to catalyze the systematic opportunities of the military industry.
However, in the past two years, the investment logic of the military industry has changed, and the military investment has changed from “theme investment” in the early stage to “Fundamentals driven”. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that the trend of the military industry is becoming clearer in recent years. The overall net profit of core military enterprises has increased by more than 20% year-on-year for three consecutive years. The “14th five year plan” is an unprecedented golden development period of the military industry, its growth and long-term development certainty will continue to be verified, and the main investment line of the industry will turn to performance driven and growth driven under the expectation of “high boom”.
In 2022, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that when procurement is normally issued, new production capacity is put into operation and supply chain management enters a new stage, the prosperity of the military industry will return to the normal growth rate of the 14th five year plan and enter the “new normal”.
It is worth mentioning that after entering January, with the advent of the traditional consumption peak season, the rising probability of consumer sectors such as commerce and retail, household appliances and automobiles is also significantly high.
New year’s day and Spring Festival are approaching. Galaxy Securities believes that the current consumer market environment and policy environment are relatively positive and optimistic. With the further promotion of China’s epidemic control effect and vaccine popularization, consumption promotion policies such as consumer vouchers are steadily implemented, China’s economy is gradually returning to the previous growth track, residents’ consumer confidence and the vitality of China’s consumer market are steadily restored, The growth rate of social consumption will also return to the pre epidemic level.
Galaxy Securities said that consumer goods that meet the needs of holiday celebrations, banquets and gifts, as well as corresponding channel providers (such as e-commerce and shopping) have ushered in the expansion of sales scale. In addition, at the end of the year, a small-scale delta mutant virus epidemic began to occur in many places, and investors still need to pay attention to investment opportunities in basic livelihood industries.
focus on A-share structural opportunities
Since December 2021, the monetary policies of the United States and other countries have been tightened, coupled with the spread of mutant strains, there have been certain fluctuations in the global market, and the plate rotation has also intensified under the warming of institutional capital game at the end of the year.
For the trend of A-share market in 2022, most institutions believe that with the gradual development of steady growth policy and the continuous verification of economic and financial data, the market is expected to rise, but the policy shift of the Federal Reserve is an important exogenous variable.
The FOMC meeting of the United States in December last year turned to hawks as scheduled, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the change of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has limited impact on a shares. On the one hand, the current interest rate increase expectation itself is in an overheated stage, and the performance of overseas asset prices reflects the possibility of the expected decline of interest rate increase in the future. On the other hand, under the policy tone of “focusing on me”, China’s loose expectations are still in the fermentation rhythm, and it is difficult to form a joint force under the mismatch of rhythms at home and abroad.
Looking back, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that after the easing expectation is gradually fulfilled in the first half of 2022, with the possibility of CPI inflation exceeding expectations and the gradual effect of steady growth policy in the second half of 2022, China’s liquidity expectation will gradually shrink to neutral. At that time, we should be alert to the resonance of negative expectations of internal and external liquidity, so as to amplify the impact on the equity market. In the short term, we should pay attention to the short-term disturbance caused by the “crackdown on counterfeiting” of foreign capital, and the medium-term dimension should focus on tracking the rhythm of the Fed’s policy.
Huajin Securities said that A-Shares will continue the structural market in 2022. Overseas, under the background of the normalization epidemic, the gradual withdrawal of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy will restrict the liquidity of the global financial market. However, under the background that the CPI tends to fall and the expectation of economic recovery is not strong, it is expected to be neutral and loose for the time being. It may be too early to consider the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase in the first half of next year at least.
In China, Huajin Securities believes that the focus of next year is expected to tilt towards stable growth and take into account the external balance. Considering that the two engines of real estate and foreign demand may face pressure, when China’s economy descends to a certain extent, monetary policy will usher in a loose time window. At the turn of the second and third quarters of next year, it may usher in a loose opportunity. It can be expected to reduce reserve requirements or interest rates.
In terms of enterprise performance, Huajin Securities believes that, affected by the continuous real estate regulation and the gradual weakening of external demand, if the manufacturing industry, consumption and services can not make up for the gap in investment and export, there will be great downward pressure on economic growth in the first half of next year, and PPI will continue to decline under macro pressure, which should lead to the decline of performance growth of A-share listed companies. However, China US relations are stumbling, and the continuous competition between the two sides in political, economic and other fields will still be the main tone. It is difficult to significantly improve market risk appetite.
(Securities Times)
