core view
review: in mid October, we judged that the main line will return to growth, and science and technology innovation will sound the horn of counter attack. On November 10, in the sharp shock of the market, we judged that the next year’s market was about to start.
Outlook: with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and marginal “wide credit” windows, the negative factors gradually subside, and the index market is still on the way. Focus on three directions.
since November 2021, the cross year market has picked up in the turbulence. on November 10, when the market fluctuated sharply, we took the lead in judging that “the cross year market is about to start” and “cherish the long window at the end of the year” and recommended the undervalued sectors represented by real estate and infrastructure at the bottom. Since then, the cross-year market has opened slowly, and the Shanghai composite index once exceeded 3700.
although the market has been bumpy recently, with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and marginal “wide credit” windows, the negative factors have gradually subsided, and the index market is still on the way. 1) the market has been bumpy recently, which is mainly disturbed by short-term factors such as institutional balance structure and fund return at the end of the year. However, after entering the new year, these negative factors are gradually disappearing, and the allocation of funds is expected to bring a “good start” to the market. On the other hand, the US and European markets have also rebounded significantly recently. The three major indexes of US stocks have reached a new high, the external environment is also easing, and foreign capital is expected to continue to flow in. 2) The market is still in the time window of “wide money” and marginal “wide credit”, and the core logic of the index market continues to be fulfilled and strengthened: on December 20, 2021, the one-year LPR cut interest rates by 5bp. At the fourth quarter regular meeting of the central bank on December 25, the monetary policy tools were required to “be more active and promising, increase support for the real economy” and “enhance the stability of the growth of total credit” “Enhance the resilience of economic development and stabilize the macro-economic market”. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the decision-making level has continuously released positive signals recently. Whether it is the recent interest rate cut, or the previous RRR reduction, economic work conference and Politburo meeting, we are constantly verifying the judgment of the expected warming of phased marginal “wide credit”. 3) The real estate policy and financing environment have improved marginally. Since September, the regulators have repeatedly set the tone of “maintaining the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers”, the financing margin of real estate enterprises has been loosened, and the mortgage investment has continued to pick up in October and November. 4) With the gradual stabilization of the credit environment, the superposition of the cross cycle adjustment window at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and the moderate advance of the policy force in 2022, the economy is expected to gradually stabilize and warm up and provide fundamental support for the market. In December 2021, the manufacturing PMI index was 50.3, rising for two consecutive months; Non manufacturing PMI was 52.7, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Subsequently, with the “steady growth” initiative, it may continue to drive the infrastructure chain and manufacturing industry to maintain prosperity. Therefore, on the whole, with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and “wide credit” windows, the negative factors gradually subside, the steady growth continues to exert force, the real estate policy and financing environment have improved marginally, and the index market is still on the way.
focus on three directions: 1) state owned real estate enterprises and new and old infrastructure: on the one hand, benefiting from marginal changes in policies, “steady growth” is expected to rise. The economic work conference called for “moderately advanced infrastructure investment” and “promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing”. On the other hand, the subsequent monetary and credit is expected to be further relaxed, which will also bring about the valuation repair of infrastructure, real estate and other sectors. 2) Securities companies: the economic work conference proposed to “fully implement the stock issuance registration system”, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities companies. At the same time, with the continuous deduction of the cross-year market, as a plate with strong linkage with the market, securities companies β Attributes will also be fully interpreted and released. 3) The scientific and technological growth represented by “small high tech” is arranged on a bargain hunting basis. Recently, the scientific and technological growth plate has been adjusted, which is mainly disturbed by factors such as position, mood and style. However, in the medium and long term, scientific and technological growth is still the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under the policy of common prosperity. Under the background of the game between China and the United States, it is the most distinctive theme of the times to comply with the current urgent need to improve scientific and technological competitiveness and get rid of the dilemma of “neck sticking”.
investment strategy: in the short term, on the one hand, grasp the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued value of state-owned real estate enterprises and securities companies, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long fighting short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedical drugs (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tip: pay attention to the unexpected return of global capital to the United States and the game between China and the United States.
report body
the index market is still on the way, focusing on three directions
review: in mid October, we judged that the main line will return to growth, and science and technology innovation will sound the horn of counter attack. On November 10, in the sharp shock of the market, we judged that the next year’s market was about to start.
Outlook: with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and marginal “wide credit” windows, the negative factors gradually subside, and the index market is still on the way. Focus on three directions.
since November 2021, the cross year market has picked up in the turbulence. on November 10, when the market fluctuated sharply, we took the lead in judging that “the cross year market is about to start” and “cherish the long window at the end of the year” and recommended the undervalued sectors represented by real estate and infrastructure at the bottom. Since then, the cross-year market has opened slowly, and the Shanghai composite index once exceeded 3700.
although the market has been bumpy recently, with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and marginal “wide credit” windows, the negative factors have gradually subsided, and the index market is still on the way. 1) the market has been bumpy recently, which is mainly disturbed by short-term factors such as institutional balance structure and fund return at the end of the year. However, after entering the new year, these negative factors are gradually disappearing, and the allocation of funds is expected to bring a “good start” to the market. On the other hand, the US and European markets have also rebounded significantly recently. The three major indexes of US stocks have reached a new high, the external environment is also easing, and foreign capital is expected to continue to flow in. 2) The market is still in the time window of “wide money” and marginal “wide credit”, and the core logic of the index market continues to be fulfilled and strengthened: on December 20, 2021, the one-year LPR cut interest rates by 5bp. At the fourth quarter regular meeting of the central bank on December 25, the monetary policy tools were required to “be more active and promising, increase support for the real economy” and “enhance the stability of the growth of total credit” “Enhance the resilience of economic development and stabilize the macro-economic market”. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the decision-making level has continuously released positive signals recently. Whether it is the recent interest rate cut, or the previous RRR reduction, economic work conference and Politburo meeting, we are constantly verifying the judgment of the expected warming of phased marginal “wide credit”. 3) The real estate policy and financing environment have improved marginally. Since September, the regulators have repeatedly set the tone of “maintaining the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers”, the financing margin of real estate enterprises has been loosened, and the mortgage investment has continued to pick up in October and November. 4) With the gradual stabilization of the credit environment, the superposition of the cross cycle adjustment window at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and the moderate advance of the policy force in 2022, the economy is expected to gradually stabilize and warm up and provide fundamental support for the market. In December 2021, the manufacturing PMI index was 50.3, rising for two consecutive months; Non manufacturing PMI was 52.7, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Subsequently, with the “steady growth” initiative, it may continue to drive the infrastructure chain and manufacturing industry to maintain prosperity. Therefore, on the whole, with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and “wide credit” windows, the negative factors gradually subside, the steady growth continues to exert force, the real estate policy and financing environment have improved marginally, and the index market is still on the way.
focus on three directions: 1) state owned real estate enterprises and new and old infrastructure: on the one hand, benefiting from marginal changes in policies, “steady growth” is expected to rise. The economic work conference called for “moderately advanced infrastructure investment” and “promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing”. On the other hand, the subsequent monetary and credit is expected to be further relaxed, which will also bring about the valuation repair of infrastructure, real estate and other sectors. 2) Securities companies: the economic work conference proposed to “fully implement the stock issuance registration system”, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities companies. At the same time, with the continuous deduction of the cross-year market, as a plate with strong linkage with the market, securities companies β Attributes will also be fully interpreted and released. 3) The scientific and technological growth represented by “small high tech” is arranged on a bargain hunting basis. Recently, the scientific and technological growth plate has been adjusted, which is mainly disturbed by factors such as position, mood and style. However, in the medium and long term, scientific and technological growth is still the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under the policy of common prosperity. Under the background of the game between China and the United States, it is the most distinctive theme of the times to comply with the current urgent need to improve scientific and technological competitiveness and get rid of the dilemma of “neck sticking”.
Investment strategy: in the short term, on the one hand, grasp the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued state-owned real estate enterprises and securities companies, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long fighting short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedical drugs (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
A-share market review this week
A-share capital face tracking
earnings and valuation of A-Shares
overseas market tracking
risk tip: pay attention to the unexpected return of global capital to the United States and the game between China and the United States.
(Yao wanghou)
