if the Q1 index fluctuates very violently (the index amplitude exceeds 15%), January will generally be the starting point of this fluctuation. For example, the first wave of decline (- 15.4%) caused by the epidemic in January 2020 began on January 14. In the first quarter of 2019, the index rose by 28.2%, starting from January 4. The most drastic decline in Q1 in 2018 began on January 25, with the largest decline of – 14.6%. The biggest decline in 2016 began on January 4. This is mainly because at the beginning of the year, due to the adjustment of assessment cycle and the need of fund allocation, the funds and positions of various investors are easy to fluctuate greatly. From January, we need to focus on verifying the activity of residents’ funds and the improvement of credit brought by stable growth. If both factors are optimistic, the cross-year market can last until March. Otherwise, January may be the end of this wave of cross-year market.
(1) if Q1 fluctuates at a large level, January is crucial. although there have been many voices discussing the cross year market and spring agitation since November, the core time period of spring market is mainly the first quarter, and because of its duration, it often does not implement the whole first quarter. Then January will be very critical. If there is a large adjustment in the stock market in January, the rise from February to March will be very certain. If it rises in January, it basically means that the market in March will be relatively weak.
Another more important point is that if the Q1 index fluctuates very violently (the index amplitude exceeds 15%), January will generally be the starting point of this fluctuation. For example, the first wave of decline (- 15.4%) caused by the epidemic in January 2020 began on January 14. In the first quarter of 2019, the index rose by 28.2%, starting from January 4. The most drastic decline in Q1 in 2018 began on January 25, with the largest decline of – 14.6%. The biggest decline in 2016 began on January 4. Q1 in 2015 was an exception, and the biggest rise in the period began in February.
(2) investors’ funds and positions are prone to large fluctuations at the beginning of the year. since January every year, the stock market will fluctuate greatly, mainly because the funds and positions of various investors are easy to fluctuate at the beginning of the year. In early 2018 and early 2020, there was a large amount of fund issuance, but due to the impact of deleveraging and the epidemic, the stock market only rose to the middle and late January, and then there were major adjustments.
In Q1 2019, there were not many new funds, but the stock of individual investors and institutional investors increased their positions significantly. The average position of partial stock hybrid funds increased by 7.7% in a single quarter, and the shareholding ratio rose from a very low level to a medium level in history. The decline in January 2016 began on January 4. The important background behind it is that the funds entering near the bull market peak in 2015 began to leave strategically after the stock market rebounded. The settlement funds of securities trading rapidly decreased from 2 trillion in December to 1.5 trillion at the end of January.
(3) profit expectation in January 2022: focus on the strength of credit recovery. this year’s cross year market, the main variable affecting profit expectation is steady growth. Since the central economic work conference in December, the policy tone of steady growth has been clear and deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. However, if the steady growth market is expected to continue to ferment, it is necessary to verify the credit intensity in January.
Historically, the strength of stable growth market mainly depends on the recovery strength of Social Finance (or credit). The steady growth strength was large at the end of 2008 and 2012, and then social finance rebounded sharply and the economy stabilized within half a year, so it will have a great impact on the index and market. The steady growth in 2014-2016 and 2018-2019 has brought about the leveling of social finance, and the economic recovery is more than one year after the steady growth. Therefore, whether the stable growth market can continue to ferment this time depends on the credit data in January.
(4) short term strategy: January is key. there are three main driving forces supporting this cross-year Market: Valuation rebound + steady growth + seasonal recovery of residents’ funds. The first driving force is the “valuation rebound”. Since March, the adjustment time and amplitude of some sectors are large, so it is necessary to repair the valuation. The second driving force is the “optimistic policy before and after the new year”. With the implementation of the RRR reduction, the new year’s market will enter the second wave of rise dominated by stable growth expectations. Since January, it is necessary to focus on verifying the activity of residents’ funds and the improvement of credit brought by stable growth. No matter up or down in January, the fluctuation will not be too small.
home furnishing suggestion: has been following the logic of valuation repair in the past 2 months. Since the beginning of the year, consumers, such as Baijiu (liquor), Chinese medicine (TCM), real estate chains (real estate, home furnishing, building materials), and Internet media have been led, although the fundamentals of these markets haven’t changed much since the high frequency data. The only thing that has not been greatly repaired is financial stocks. The important reason behind it may be that the long-term logic of financial stocks is weak, and there is no logic of supply-demand mismatch in the short term. There are great differences in stock selection methods and consumption, growth and cycle. However, we believe that due to the good matching between the valuation and fundamentals of financial stocks, this bias is likely to be quickly repaired in the next six months. The main configuration lines we propose at present: (1) the supply and demand cycle of military industry, hotel, aviation and other industries is independent, and it can be paid attention to all year in 2022. (2) Generally, financial real estate can advance, retreat and defend in the middle and later stages of economic downturn, and the strength of steady growth will be gradually strengthened in the next six months, which can exceed the allocation for six months; (3) Food and beverage, home appliances, computers, media and other sectors with poor performance this year are in the process of quarterly rebound.
(fan Jituo’s investment strategy)
