Carbon fiber has a wide range of applications, huge market space, and the pace of domestic substitution is accelerated. In 2020, the global carbon fiber market will be about 106900 tons. It is expected that the demand will reach 200000 tons in 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 13.4%, and 400000 tons in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 14.1%. China’s demand for carbon fiber will reach 48900 tons in 2020 and 150000 tons in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.1%, including 83000 tons of domestic carbon fiber supply, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.1%, 66500 tons of imported carbon fiber supply, and the pace of domestic substitution will be significantly accelerated.
The large-scale military aircraft + civil aircraft relay is expected to promote the outbreak of high-end carbon fiber market. In 2020, the global aerospace carbon fiber market demand will be about 16500 tons, and it is estimated that the demand will be about 26300 tons in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.86%. At present, the proportion of carbon fiber used in China’s fourth generation fighter is about 27%, while the amount of carbon fiber used in the third generation fighter is only about 6% to 10%. The proportion of carbon fiber used in a single machine of the fourth generation fighter has increased significantly. We believe that with the acceleration of Chinese military aircraft and the increase of the proportion of single machine carbon fiber, the military carbon fiber will meet the rapid volume period. In terms of civil aircraft, it is estimated that in the next 20 years, the demand of C919 for carbon fiber market will be about 8.6 billion yuan, with an annual average of 430 million yuan, while the proportion of composite materials in the next generation cr929 model may reach 50%, thus forming a continuous demand for carbon fiber. It is expected that China’s aerospace market will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 25% in the next 5-10 years.
The “double carbon” policy gives wind power certainty, and the scale of 10 billion creates a huge market. It is estimated that in 2025, the annual newly installed capacity of wind power in China will not be less than 60GW, or reach 800gw in 2030 and 3000gw in 2060. In 2030, the demand for carbon fiber in the wind power market will be about 200000 tons. According to the calculation of 80000 yuan per ton, the market space will be about 16 billion yuan. With the increase of installed capacity and the length of wind power blades, the carbon fiber industry will usher in a broader development space.
The market prospect of carbon fiber for pressure vessel is promising. In 2020, the global demand for carbon fiber for pressure vessels will be 8800 tons, accounting for 8.8% of the total demand for various applications. It is expected that the total demand will be 21897 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 20%. In 2020, China’s carbon fiber consumption of pressure vessels will be 2000 tons. In the future, with the gradual breakthrough of China’s type IV bottle technology and the superposition of China’s huge market demand, the on-board hydrogen storage bottle is expected to become one of the important application fields of carbon fiber.
The “small body” of transportation and the “big market” of carbon fiber. In 2020, the global demand for automotive carbon fiber will be about 12500 tons, and the total demand is expected to be 18300 tons by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 10%. In 2020, the consumption of automobile carbon fiber in the Chinese market is about 1200 tons, accounting for 2.5% of the total demand in various fields. At present, carbon fiber has not realized large-scale application in the field of rail transit, but it still belongs to the field where carbon fiber will be widely used in the future. Seizing the opportunity of industrialization in the field of rail transit is a great opportunity to catch up with foreign manufacturers. According to the prediction of Guangzhou Saiao, the global demand for carbon fiber for automobile and rail transit will be about 90000-100000 tons by 2030.
Investment suggestion: the military and civilian markets are developing together, and the rapid development of carbon fiber industry can be expected. With the acceleration of Chinese military aircraft train loading and the increase of the proportion of single machine carbon fiber, military carbon fiber is facing a rapid and large-scale period. It is suggested that listed companies with existing military models and high proportion of military products business should be preferred, including Zhongjian Technology (300777. SZ), Guangwei composite (300699. SZ) and AVIC high tech (600862. SH). The military market is a development period from 0 to 1 for the carbon fiber industry, while the civil market is a great leap from 1 to 10 for the carbon fiber industry. Based on a long-term perspective, it is recommended to pay attention to Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) (300699. SZ) and Zhongfu Shenying, which have dual layout in the military and civil fields and have large capacity release space.
Risk tip: the risk of wrong choice of technology development path and less than expected capacity release.
