Upstream of hydrogen energy: in 2019, the hydrogen energy permeability is only 2.7%, and hydrogen production from coal is the current mainstream & Green hydrogen has great room for long-term cost reduction
1) Hydrogen energy penetration: in 2019, China’s hydrogen production capacity will be about 41 million tons / year, and the output will be about 33.42 million tons, accounting for only 2.7% of the total terminal energy. With policy support, the hydrogen demand is expected to account for 10% in the terminal energy system by 2050 and 20% by 2060.
2) Hydrogen production: China’s fossil fuel hydrogen production is the most mainstream at present, and green hydrogen has great room for cost reduction, which is a long-term development trend.
① Hydrogen production from fossil fuels: in 2019, the output accounted for 78%, including 64% from coal and 14% from natural gas. China’s coal hydrogen production process is mature and cost-effective. When the raw coal is 800 yuan / ton, the hydrogen production cost is about 12.64 yuan / kg.
② Industrial by-product hydrogen: the output accounts for 21% in 2019. China’s industrial by-product hydrogen has great potential.
③ Hydrogen production from electrolyzed water: in 2019, the output accounted for only 1%. Alkaline, PEM and SOEC electrolysis are the three major processes at present, and the power cost accounts for about 40% ~ 80%. Under the electricity price of 0.3 yuan / kWh, the cost of alkaline hydrogen production is about 20 yuan / kg, which restricts the large-scale development, reduces the power cost of renewable energy, reduces the cost of equipment and drives the green hydrogen parity driven by technological progress. In 2050, the proportion of green hydrogen supply is expected to reach 70%.
Middle reaches of hydrogen energy: mainly gaseous hydrogen storage, solid and liquid industrialization needs to be tackled, and the layout of hydrogenation station is accelerated
1) Storage and transportation: high pressure gaseous hydrogen storage is the mainstream. 20MPa gaseous high pressure hydrogen storage and cluster tube truck transportation are widely used in China. There is great potential for long-distance + large-scale liquid storage and transportation, and the industrialization of solid and liquid hydrogen storage needs to reduce costs and tackle key technical problems.
2) Filling: the filling cost is still high, and the accelerated layout and large-scale construction of the hydrogenation station are expected to reduce the cost.
Hydrogen downstream: fuel cell is a common terminal application form, which is mainly used in the field of transportation and construction
1) Development situation in the transportation field: the battery type is proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), and 3712 battery vehicles have been connected to the Chinese platform by the end of 2019.
① Road transportation: Commercial Vehicles / passenger vehicles require higher durability & cost / volume power density respectively; Commercial vehicles take the lead in development. From 2030 to 2035, commercial vehicles can meet the industrialization requirements and passenger vehicle technology can reach the level of large-scale application.
② Non road transportation: China is actively exploring in the fields of heavy industry, rail transportation and shipping, and still needs operation verification & performance improvement.
2) Development situation in the construction field: the battery type is solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), which have been commercialized in the United States and Japan, and China is still in the preliminary research and development stage.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the landing of fuel cell technology is less than expected, the cost reduction and supporting facilities construction are less than expected
