Review: since November 2021, the judgment style has switched to the direction of steady growth such as finance and real estate. In March 2022, it was judged that the scientific and technological growth entered the bottom area in the "new half army" timing framework.
Outlook: the most panic time has passed, and the market will usher in a phased repair window in the next month.
-- the most panic time has passed, and the market will usher in a phased repair window in the coming month. 1) Although the Russian Ukrainian negotiations have not made substantive progress, the attitude and sanctions measures of all parties have been basically clear since the interpretation of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, and the possibility of further exceeding the expected impact is reduced. Moreover, from the performance of overseas markets this week, the panic over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been significantly released, and the overseas equity market has also changed from unilateral decline to two-way fluctuation. 2) In February, the total amount and structure of social finance in China were significantly lower than market expectations. It indicates that the current downward pressure on the economy is still large, and it also means that the follow-up "steady growth" policy will be further strengthened. In February, the new social finance scale was 1.19 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 2.2 trillion yuan. The stock of social finance increased by 10.2% year-on-year, lower than 10.5% of the previous value. Structurally, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents are weak, and the issuance of government bonds has become the main support. However, the "steady growth" policy has been actively introduced recently. The two sessions defined the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%, and required to "expand the scale of new loans" and "reduce the comprehensive financing cost". Provinces have also successively announced major project investment plans, with a significant increase over last year. At the same time, many places have introduced loose policies for house purchase. "Wide currency" and "wide credit" have been increasing, and further RRR and interest rate cuts can be expected in the future. 3) The Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates and even shrink the table is imminent. On March 16, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting in March. The interest rate increase of 25bp is basically "a certainty", and there is a high probability of announcing the schedule reduction plan. At the same time, the market's long-standing concerns about interest rate increase will also fall to the ground. If the market is impacted again, it may be another opportunity to participate in the deep rebound. The next month, after the continuous adjustment since the beginning of the year and the most panic point gradually passed, the market is expected to usher in a wave of repair window.
-- in the medium term, external uncertainty will continue to disturb and restrict risk appetite. 1) The risk of global stagflation may increase or lead to more than expected tightening. In mid April, the United States and Europe will release the CPI data of March (the United States, Germany on April 12, the European Union and the United Kingdom on April 13). Under the continuous record high inflation pressure, the European Central Bank has recently been forced to significantly raise its CPI growth forecast in 2022 from 3.2% to 5.1%, and decided to reduce the scale of bond purchase under the conventional asset purchase plan, suggesting that interest rates will be gradually increased after the end of bond purchase, releasing a hawkish signal that exceeded expectations. As for the Fed, Powell has said at the Capitol Hill hearing that the interest rate will only be increased by 25bp in March, and the next interest rate meeting will wait until May 4. If the inflation in March is significantly higher than expected, the possibility of emergency interest rate increase of 25bp by the Federal Reserve through teleconference in April 1994 cannot be ruled out. 2) Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the confrontation between major countries has intensified, which is still causing global financial turmoil. On the one hand, this week, foreign capital, especially the overseas long money represented by the allocation sector, flowed out sharply; On the other hand, according to the foreign company Accountability Act, the Securities Regulatory Commission of the United States recently identified five Chinese concept companies as "identified subjects" with delisting risk, which led to the sharp decline of Chinese concept shares and Hong Kong shares.
-- in terms of operation strategy, on the one hand, the growth of science and technology has reached the bottom area, and the emotional repair window can find the target with uncertain performance to make a deep rebound; On the other hand, based on defense and counterattack, allocate financial and real estate sectors with high dividends, undervalued value and strengthened policy expectations. The two sessions further released the signal of "steady growth", and the pattern of "external chaos and internal stability" was determined. The "steady growth" sectors such as state-owned enterprise real estate, infrastructure and banking are both safe and policy driven. For the growth of science and technology, combined with the ten indicators proposed in the "new half army" timing framework, the relevant sectors have entered the bottom area. At present, we can make a deep rebound along the photovoltaic, wind power, semiconductor and other sectors with strong performance certainty. At the same time, we can also find "small high-tech" from bottom to top based on the medium-term business trend and profit growth in the bottom area.
-- investment strategy: in the second quarter, we believe that the size style will shift to balance, and we suggest "steady growth" + "small high tech" and "dumbbell type" allocation: on the one hand, we benefit from the financial, real estate, new and old funds and other sectors expected by "steady growth"; On the other hand, we will continue to find targets that meet the characteristics of "small high-tech" from bottom to top in the more adjusted medicine, computer and "new semi army". In the long term, we will continue to focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Risk tip: focus on the return of global capital to the United States, and the game between China and the United States exceeds expectations.
