[editor's note] metaverse, the English name of metaverse, originated from the avalanche of science fiction primary school, shines brightly in 2021: from NVIDIA's old yellow to Facebook's Xiaozha, and then to Baidu, Netease and Tencent in China, Internet giants have arranged and occupied positions one after another. Is the first year of the universe coming?
By interviewing industry experts, practitioners and analysts, surging journalists analyze the "past and present life" of yuanuniverse and explore Xiaohe's sharp yuanuniverse industrial chain and investment opportunities.
Although there is no clear definition, this does not affect metaverse to become one of the top ten buzzwords in 2021.
In October, the company name of Facebook was renamed "meta", and all in metauniverse undoubtedly added a fire to this concept. When technology giants scramble to layout, their investment value, market scale and future development direction have also become the focus of hot discussion on Wall Street.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that there is a total market of $8 trillion among American consumers, but the agency also warned that the adoption of metauniverse may also pose a challenge due to the current strong digital media and e-commerce products, the uncertainty of metauniverse experience, consumers' distrust of some companies in protecting personal data, etc.
In UBS's view, the key equipment of metauniverse is ar (augmented reality) glasses, which helps to integrate the digital world with the real world. The technical barrier of AR is much higher than that of VR helmet, and suitable ar glasses may take some time to launch. At the same time, whether Apple or meta can commercialize affordable augmented reality glasses is crucial to the success of metauniverse.
Morgan Stanley: there is an 8 trillion dollar market among American consumers
Morgan Stanley believes that metauniverse is likely to become the next generation of social media, streaming media and game platforms. And similar to the current digital platform, metauniverse is likely to become an advertising and e-commerce platform for offline products.
This also means that the potential consumer spending market space (TAM) in the United States is as high as $8.3 trillion, covering real estate, core retail, cars, games and other fields.
At the same time, Morgan Stanley sees more opportunities for immersive experience and unlocking the metauniverse, including in the fields of clothing, cosmetics, games, video streaming, cars, real estate and home design, music and education.
It is worth mentioning that this $8.3 trillion does not include new potential consumer spending items, such as non-homogeneous tokens (NFT), digital collections or new creative subscriptions. Morgan Stanley expects digital collections and NFT to grow with the development of the next generation of metauniverse.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that NFT and various social games may create huge business opportunities for the boutique industry. Social games are expected to create $20 billion business opportunities for the digital luxury industry by 2030, and various digital luxury goods and collectibles may gain more than $25 billion in the $300 billion NFT market.
Morgan Stanley said that many attempts of the brand in the field of NFT and social games have helped them to explore new customers and understand this new market. The brand is in the proof of concept stage of NFT and metauniverse games. The evidence shows that the current tests have been successful, and how to realize it in the next stage.
However, the agency also acknowledges that due to the powerful digital media and e-commerce products, the adoption of metauniverse will not be fast and simple.
"This means that any metauniverse may need to cooperate to promote adoption or develop its own new 'killer applications / products' to promote large-scale adoption," Morgan Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) said. In addition, the uncertainty of meta universe experience and consumers' distrust of some companies in protecting personal data may also pose a challenge to the adoption of meta universe. The agency acknowledges that it is uncertain whether consumers will choose to share more detailed digital information, what they are doing and with whom in the next 10 years.
Jefferies: the biggest subversion that mankind has experienced
Jefferies, an investment company, is more optimistic. Jefferies analysts led by Simon Powell wrote in a report that the meta universe may be "the biggest subversion experienced by mankind", leading to "the digitization of everything" and "a new platform in the digital age". Of course, the agency also acknowledges that even a simple meta universe may be at least ten years away from us.
"A single super universe may take more than ten years, but with its development, it may subvert almost everything that has not been subverted in human life." Jefferies said in the report.
Simon Powell said in an interview with CNBC that metauniverse is an early investment opportunity similar to the Internet. This means paying attention to hardware suppliers first, then software suppliers, and finally operating technology companies.
"We can only imagine what it will look like." "We should think that in the next five to 10 years, all human activities that have not been transferred to the Internet will be transferred to the Internet," he said
Although Simon Powell predicts that the metauniverse will eventually cover all aspects of human activities, he believes that applications will start with games, entertainment and social media. However, he said that it was uncertain whether the metauniverse was dominated by companies such as Facebook / meta or by decentralized virtual worlds such as the sandbox or decentraland.
Some stocks on Jefferies list include snap, roblox, take two interactive software, electronic arts, activation blizzard, unity software, MicroStrategy and Warner Music Group.
In the field of games, roblox (rblx), Microsoft, the owner of minecraft, and Epic Games, the creator of fortnite, have been creating an experience similar to the meta universe. Traditional game manufacturers, including Activision Blizzard, electronic arts and take two interactive software, are also building their future metauniverse.
Investors can also look for opportunities from blockchain based games, such as mana and sand. Simon Powell wrote: "it is a breakthrough idea that assets won or created in games can be obtained from games and used in other parts of the real or digital world. These games are breaking through the closed-loop characteristics of assets that cannot leave the game."
Simon Powell also advised investors to consider chip manufacturers such as NVIDIA and AMD. He said that entering the virtual world would require huge computing power. He also recommended device manufacturers, such as those that make virtual reality headphones. "This is all about infrastructure construction in the next few years." Simon Powell said.
UBS: the key equipment of metauniverse is ar glasses
Technology infrastructure will be crucial in the coming years. UBS believes that virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) devices are gateways to the meta universe, but they are still an obstacle.
UBS simplified the meta universe ecosystem into three levels: platform and content providers (Microsoft, meta and NVIDIA): user interface (VR / AR devices) and technology infrastructure (cloud / network / payment).
"The user interface (VR / AR headphones and glasses) is the gateway to the meta world and provides a 3D user experience," said Grace Chen, an analyst at UBS. The penetration rate of these devices is still very low, but their market is expected to grow faster than mature devices and finally "bring the Internet experience to the next chapter".
At the same time, computing (cloud / edge computing) and network supply chain (from chipsets, memory and various components to system manufacturers) are the key building blocks of the metauniverse. UBS predicts that driven by the vigorous development of Al and 5g applications, the total capital expenditure of the world's leading cloud service providers will increase by 19% year-on-year in 2022 (32% year-on-year in 2021). UBS's capital spending is expected to stimulate long-term growth.
UBS pointed out that the key equipment of metauniverse is ar glasses, which helps to integrate the digital world with the real world. The technical barrier of AR is much higher than that of VR helmet, and suitable ar glasses may take some time to launch.
"We believe that once VR / AR devices reach a higher penetration rate and are more widely used in consumer and commercial fields, metauniverse may become a driving force for the incremental growth of the technology supply chain." Grace Chen said in the report.
UBS said that this year's VR shipment is estimated to be 10.7 million units, an increase of 98% over last year, but it is still far lower than 345 million personal computers and 1.4 billion global mobile phones. The agency predicts that by 2025, this figure will increase nearly sixfold to 61 million units, and its value will rise to US $1 billion. From 2021 to 2025, the global VR lens market value will reach a compound annual growth rate of 91%. The real ar glasses may be launched after 2023. "The ultimate device of the metauniverse is ar glasses, but they need the miniaturization of personal vision and the development of new technologies such as microled."
"Whether Apple or meta can commercialize affordable augmented reality glasses is crucial to the success of metauniverse," UBS concluded
At present, meta oculus is a market leader, which is expected to occupy 75% of the market share in 2021, and Sony and Apple will join in 2022.
(surging News)
