Key investment points:
Update of key companies
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the company disclosed the main operating data from January to February. From January to February 2021, the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was + 20% / + 20% year-on-year. During the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales were good, and the income and profit from January to February exceeded the market expectation, mainly due to the increase of the proportion of direct sales and the price increase of series of wines.
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : the company disclosed the operating situation. From January to February 2022, the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was + 35% / + 50% year-on-year. The revenue exceeded the market expectation, and the profit margin of the company increased to 36%, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of Qinghua Fen Liquor, which exceeded 2021q1 (accounting for 40%).
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the company issued a performance express, and the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was + 15.5% / + 17.0% year-on-year; Q4 revenue / net profit attributable to parent company + 11.1% / + 11.4% year on year. The new and old teams relay smoothly. Zeng Congqin served as chairman and Jiang Wenge as general manager. Personnel are settled and cohesion is improved. Recently, the company held an investor communication and exchange meeting. President Zeng said that "in 2022 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will earnestly maintain the current 'stable' trend and 'progressive' efforts, actively promote the relative balance between the low and peak seasons, and strive to exceed the annual objectives and tasks", "will meet the new consumer demand and lead the new market trend with high-quality supply through 'making up for the short, strengthening the weak and strengthening the excellent" "During the 14th Five Year Plan period, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group's performance plan will maintain a steady growth of more than double digits, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) shares will maintain a growth rate higher than that of the group", which fully reflects its confidence in future development and strengthens its confidence in the outside world.
Summary of Baijiu consumption tax reform and influence
Current situation: China's consumption tax began with the tax system reform in 1994, and its proportion is stable at present. From the Baijiu industry point of view, the consumption tax has undergone many reforms and tightened regulation. At present, the Chinese Baijiu consumption tax is levied in the production process, and the ad valorem method of ad valorem + quantity is adopted. The proportion of tax rate is 20%, and the fixed duty rate is 0.5 yuan /500g. This work report does not mention consumption tax.
Outlook: 1) Baijiu consumption tax rate is stable, and there is a probability of adjusting the tax base. In the category of consumption tax collection in China, besides Baijiu products, liquor consumption tax rate is relatively high. Based on the government work report of the past two years, we proposed that we should optimize and implement the tax reduction policy and introduce a number of policy measures to reduce taxes and reduce taxes. We believe that the 20% increase in the consumption tax rate in the short term can be less effective, and there is a probability of tax base adjustment. 2) The collection link is moved backward for a short time or difficult, and the overall reform of high-end famous and high-quality wines has little impact. Since the Baijiu channel system is more complex, we think it is more difficult to move back in the short term. If we implement the consumption tax reform, the high-end and high-end liquor companies with strong brand strength will further squeeze the survival space of the low end liquor companies, which will further enhance the concentration of the industry.
Market review this week
This week (2022 / 03 / 062022 / 03 / 12), the Shenwan food and beverage index fell 2.06%, ranking fourth among 28 Shenwan level industries. Liquor (- 0.64%), pre processed food (- 1.55%) and meat products (- 3.08%) were the top three gainers this week; The total number of Companies in the sector is 112, of which 19 are up and 93 are down.
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is repeated, the recovery of food demand is less than expected, and food safety problems
