Duplicate smartphone: there are different opportunities in different life cycle stages. Mobile phones and cars are similar: technology and consumption are twins, and the company with the best industrial chain must have achieved the most perfect combination of the two. [penetration rate] is the first indicator of smart phone investment throughout the decade. 15% – 40% – 70% are the three key nodes in the process of improving smartphone penetration, representing the transformation of demand growth, competition pattern and valuation system. It is the first important index to guide investment. There will be different opportunities in the introduction period – early growth period – late growth period – maturity period. The characteristic of consumer goods is that any brand cannot cover all groups. The playing methods of each mobile phone manufacturer have ability boundaries and need to evolve. The growth path of excellent companies in the supply chain: making single products into No.1 – platform replication advantage.
Resumption 20192021: the end of investment opportunities in the 0-1 stage of automobile reform. Model 3 is the soul of the market in these three years. 2019 witnessed Tesla‘s “Resurrection” and brought its industrial chain opportunities – Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) . 2020 is the first diffusion market centered on Tesla, and the core is the vehicle market, which has witnessed the “Resurrection” of new forces, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) “self revolution” and Byd Company Limited(002594) “blade battery”. 2021 is the second diffusion market centered on Tesla. From Tesla to the independent brand industrial chain, the lack of core factors further catalyze the domestic substitution speed. The core of the front section is the vehicle market and the core of the back section is the parts market. The parts have witnessed the prototype of leaders in many subdivided fields represented by [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ]. Electrification is the protagonist of the market in the past three years, and intelligence is still a supporting role. US stock [NVIDIA] + a stock [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ] is the leading target of intelligence in the past three years, but it is still slightly inferior to the core protagonist of electrification. China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile penetration rate of 15% is the dividing point, which means that the automobile reform will realize stage 0-1 and start stage 1-10 in the next five years.
Looking forward to 2025: how to choose the best beneficiaries of automobile reform stage 1-10? The most important feature of this stage is: short supply or normal! Product is king, production capacity is king! The most investment worthy tracks are: 1) the leading brand, the second brand and the third brand of the whole vehicle track. The investment opportunities of the second and third brands need special attention. One or two independent brands will come out first. 2) Leading third-party supplier of key automotive technologies. The battery track pattern has been determined. The AI chip will gradually clear the track. 3) Automotive modular supplier of non core hardware.
Current 2022: the biggest dark horse or ideal automobile and its industrial chain! 2022 is a connecting year for this round of automobile reform. This correction in the first quarter created a very good opportunity for stocks that really meet the industrial trend and have long-distance strength. Standing at the current time point (early 2022), we have two criteria for stock selection in 2022: 1) looking for the second brand of new energy outside Tesla! 2) Look for varieties that can continuously benefit from lack of core! Our answer is: the biggest dark horse or ideal car and its industrial chain in 2022! Ideal L9 or the largest new energy explosion in 2022! Ideal L9 + one is creating a new category of [family user luxury car], and the degree of popularity deserves high attention! The optimal configuration combination of this industrial chain [ideal car + Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ]. Secondly, relevant parts [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) + Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.Ltd(605333) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ], etc. Other stocks in the vehicle sector [ Byd Company Limited(002594) + Xiaopeng automobile + Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + Geely Automobile], etc.
Risk tip: the recovery of vehicle demand is less than expected, the shortage of chip supply is more than expected, and the development of intelligent driving industry is less than expected
