Industry outlook and configuration suggestions
New energy vehicles: Recently, the China Automobile Association released the production and sales data of new energy vehicles. The sales volume in February was 334000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 204.7% and a month on month decrease of 22.6%. At the current time point, 1) the sector has experienced a long adjustment time and large adjustment space, and the industrial chain is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next few years. 2) In the early stage, the market was worried about the price rise of lithium carbonate, nickel and other raw materials, worried about affecting the downstream demand. We believe that the Ministry of industry and information technology said to moderately accelerate the development progress of China’s lithium resources and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and driving up prices, which is expected to crack down on the price rise of lithium carbonate caused by malicious hoarding, The lithium carbonate supply is expected to be released gradually in Q2; Meanwhile, the nickel incident in castle peak has passed its worst moment. 3) From the demand side, the downstream demand remains strong after the price rise. At the same time, the Minister of industry and information technology recently said that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 is expected to greatly exceed expectations. It is suggested to pay active attention to the battery, diaphragm, negative electrode, positive electrode and other links with good competition pattern in the sector.
Recommended recommendations include: Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567)
New energy power generation: we believe that with the rise of global energy prices, it is expected to drive the improvement of internal rate of return, further enlarge the long-term space in the future, and the demand is expected to continue to grow.
Recommended: Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212)
Industry trends:
New energy vehicles: Tesla raised the price of model 3 high-performance models on sale by 10000 yuan, with the price of 349900 yuan. The price of model y long-range version and high-performance version increased by 10000 yuan, with the prices of 357900 yuan and 397900 yuan respectively.
New energy power generation: in 2021, the photovoltaic grid connected capacity will be increased by 54.88gw, including 25.60gw of centralized photovoltaic power stations and 29.28gw of distributed photovoltaic power stations.
Risk factors: the downstream demand is less than the expected risk; Risk of technical route change; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Market competition intensifies risks; International trade risks, etc.
