Core view
The international crude oil price fluctuated after a sharp rise this week, with the fluctuation range reaching US $30 / barrel. The factors driving the rise of oil price are as follows: first, the actual increase rate of OPEC + in fundamentals is less than the planned increase rate, and the US crude oil inventory has decreased continuously; The second is the tense situation in Eastern Europe. The United States excluded Russia from the swift settlement system. In addition, the United States and Britain suspended oil imports from Russia, resulting in supply interruption and large production gap. However, in the late week, with the easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the UAE’s statement that it would call on OPEC to increase production, crude oil prices fell sharply. Since the end of last year, with the production of multiple polysilicon units, the demand for trichlorosilane has been greatly boosted, and the price of trichlorosilane has risen to more than 22000 yuan / ton. The production of new polysilicon units and daily chlorine supplement of stock capacity will greatly increase the demand for trichlorosilane, while the supply of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane has hardly increased this year, We are optimistic about the future polysilicon production capacity and the high prospect of trichlorosilane industry. Biodiesel is the most beneficial product in the context of the continuous sharp rise in international crude oil prices. Due to the carbon reduction in Europe and other countries around the world, there is a strong demand for products in recent years. At the same time, China’s biodiesel with waste oil as raw material is more supported by relevant policies in Europe and is expected to replace palm oil in the European market in the future Biodiesel with soybean oil as raw material has a huge market space. We are optimistic about the continuous expansion of production capacity of Chinese biodiesel enterprises and the profit expansion trend of products in the future. Despite the recent signing of the potassium fertilizer contract, although the signing price is the highest $590 / ton in recent years, the negotiated price of potassium fertilizer is still in a global historical depression. Considering the tight supply and demand of global potassium fertilizer and geopolitical factors, we are still optimistic about the upward trend of potassium fertilizer price. At the same time, we are optimistic about the low-cost comparative advantage and competitiveness of coal chemical enterprises under the background of the continuous and substantial rise of international crude oil prices. In addition, in the current market environment, we strongly recommend [ Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ], [ Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ], and we suggest focusing on high growth companies with strong certainty, such as Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) (photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane, electronic grade trichlorosilane, dichlorodihydrosilicon, etc.), Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) (fine phosphorus chemical industry), Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co.Ltd(688196) (biodiesel), Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) (potash fertilizer) Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) (bio based chemicals and daily chemical products) and Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) (aramid).
Key data tracking
Price rise and fall: the top five increases in the price of chemical products this week are methanol (6.86%), PTA (6.82%), vinyl acetate (6.13%), propylene (MTO) method (5.87%) and propylene (PDH method) (5.87%); The top five price declines of chemical products this week were ethyl acetate (- 21.93%), butyl acetate (- 20.84%), acetic acid (- 13.74%), bisphenol A (- 7.36%) and epoxy resin (- 5.26%).
Rise and fall of price difference: styrene (632.59%), methanol (114.81%), BDO (CIS ANHYDRIC method) (61.26%), monoammonium phosphate (50.22%) and vinyl acetate (31.25%) were the top five in the price difference of chemical products this week; The top five price differentials of chemical products this week were propylene (naphtha method) (- 187.65%), ethyl acetate (- 70.32%), butyl acrylate (- 67.32%), R125 (- 56.48%) and butyl acetate (- 51.91%).
Risk warning: the international crude oil price fluctuates sharply; Poor control of overseas epidemic has led to lower than expected recovery
