\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Event: the company achieved an operating revenue of 20.38 billion yuan (YoY + 22.4%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.85 billion yuan (YoY + 30.7%). In a single quarter, 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 6.28 billion yuan (YoY + 24.4%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.57 billion yuan (YoY + 31.8%)
Key investment points
In 2021, it will be completed successfully, and the profitability will continue to improve. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 20.38 billion yuan (YoY + 22.4%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.85 billion yuan (YoY + 30.7%), which was in line with market expectations. The company’s revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 40.9% / 5.7% / 20.9% / 24.4% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 26.9% / 36.4% / 28.9% / 31.8% respectively. The main reasons for the rapid improvement of the annual performance are as follows: 1) the proportion of medium and high-end products continues to increase. As of 2021h1, the sales revenue of medium and high-end wine accounts for 88%, an increase of 2pct month on month compared with the beginning of the year. It is expected that the product structure of the whole year will continue to be optimized in the second half of the year when Guojiao maintains a benign growth rate and Tequ speed up. 2) The decrease in the cost rate is mainly due to the company’s implementation of fine management, paying attention to the improvement of cost-effectiveness ratio and further reducing the cost rate.
East into the south, sustained and balanced national layout and development. In 2021, the company will maintain its competitive advantage in the traditional market, continue to move east and south, and increase investment in East and South China; We believe that the idea of national layout of the company will continue in 2022. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company will promote the “building of model market of Urban Agglomeration”, and select nine model markets including Shanghai and Shenzhen for intensive cultivation, in order to achieve more balanced development.
The implementation of equity incentive scheme fully demonstrates the company’s confidence in performance growth. At the end of 2020, the company put forward the goal of 1573 billion yuan in Guojiao during the 14th Five Year Plan period, that is, the sales revenue in 2022 and 2025 will exceed 20 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan respectively; In 2021, the equity incentive scheme will be finally implemented, and the incentive for core executives will be sufficient, which is expected to further improve internal efficiency and stimulate institutional vitality.
Profit forecast and investment rating: incentive landing, sufficient team morale and younger sales force will fully accumulate strength for the medium and long-term development of the company. We expect the company’s EPS to be 6.70/8.33 yuan from 2022 to 2023, and the current market value corresponds to 31 / 25X times of PE from 2022 to 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic has increased, the consumption recovery is less than expected, and the overseas situation is further volatile
