\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual performance express Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) in the evening of March 11, 2022, the company released the performance express report, which said that in 2021, the company’s operating revenue was 20.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 7.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%. Among them, 21q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 6.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.2%, which is in line with our expectations.
Guojiao Tequ double wheel drive, the company’s potential energy continues to rise. In terms of brand building, the company adopts the strategy of independent operation of dual brands. By making efforts at the same time of high-end and sub high-end price bands, the company’s potential energy will continue to improve. Over the past five years. The gap between the sales volume of new products and the price of new products in the industry has been narrowed from about 1500 million tons in 2015 to more than 500 million tons in 2015, and the gap between the sales volume of new products and the price of new products in the industry has been narrowed. After Guojiao finds the growth path, the management is expected to devote more energy to the cultivation of medium and high-grade wine, and the market share in the medium and high-end price belt is expected to be further improved, bearing the important task of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) brand rejuvenation.
The nationwide layout has been completed and the development has entered a new cycle. From the perspective of market layout, Guojiao has initially grown into a national large single product. The company focuses on deep cultivation of channels in traditional markets such as southwest and North China, has obvious competitive advantage in the 1000 yuan price belt, and the consumption potential is strengthened day by day; After years of cultivation in markets such as East China, central China and South China, consumer awareness has been continuously improved. At present, it has become the second brand in the price belt of 1000 yuan. In terms of production capacity, the first phase of the company’s technological transformation project with an investment of 7.4 billion yuan at the end of 2016 has been put into operation in 2020, and the second phase is planned to be completed at the end of the 14th five year plan. At that time, the cumulative new base liquor production capacity will reach 100000 tons and the new liquor storage capacity will reach 380000 tons. Sufficient production capacity will support the long-term development of the company.
The internal mechanism is flexible and equity incentive is implemented. In terms of channel mode, the company sets up franchise companies for different brands, independently builds different brands, binds core big businesses with equity, and avoids the risks brought by the big business system with a direct marketing system. The mode of franchise channel combines the advantages of direct marketing and large commercial system to fully stimulate the enthusiasm of the terminal while ensuring the stability of the terminal price. In addition, in terms of incentives for employees, in December 2021, the company officially granted 6.9286 million restricted shares to 441 executives and business backbones, further improving the enthusiasm of employees within the company and providing guarantee for the new development cycle of the 14th five year plan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we are optimistic about the high growth rate of the main products Guojiao and Tequ. We maintain the previous profit forecast. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202123 will be 7.85/10.3/12.45 billion yuan. At present, the corresponding PE price is 40 / 31 / 25 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the economy fluctuates sharply and the industry competition intensifies
