\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 453 Great Chinasoft Technology Co.Ltd(002453) )
Event: the company signed an order for antidepressant intermediates with Taiyao chemical. Odyssey chemical, a subsidiary of the company, and Taiyao chemical signed a letter of intent for cooperation. Taiyao plans to entrust Odyssey to manufacture GMP grade intermediates of antidepressant drug “Deanxit”, and strive to achieve sales of about 500 million yuan within three years, with the cooperation valid for five years.
Deanxit is a high value-added antidepressant drug, and its core component is difficult to synthesize. Depression is called “blue worry” in the West. The incidence of depression in the world is about 3.1%, while it is close to 6% in developed countries. In the adult population over the age of 20, patients with depression are increasing at an annual rate of 11.3%. Denmark’s H. lundbeck developed “Deanxit”. Its two components, droperidol and melitracen, have a good synergistic effect in the therapeutic effect, while there is an obvious antagonistic effect in the side effects, so that Deanxit can effectively fight depression, anxiety and improve physical symptoms. At the same time, the two core components of Deanxit have high technical barriers: 1) the synthesis of droperidol is very difficult, involving three-step format reaction, in which the proportion of isomers is strictly controlled in the narrow range of 42-52%; 2) The key technology of meritracin synthesis process is to simplify the reaction steps, shorten the reaction process and greatly reduce the cost. High difficulty and high cost greatly restrict its large-scale production.
The company gets through the core technology and gains orders, and strives to achieve sales of 500 million yuan within three years. At present, it is rare for enterprises outside China to realize the large-scale production of droperidol and melitracene at the same time. Odyssey chemical has opened up and optimized the large-scale production process of the two intermediates and become a competitive supplier. The company announced that it had signed an intermediate order with Taiyao chemical, the world’s leading cdmo manufacturer. The new order of daili will bring considerable sales and profit margin to the company. Consolidate the company’s industry position as a research and development platform for pharmaceutical intermediates. The company’s involvement in GMP intermediates has laid a foundation for its future involvement in delixin API and high value-added intermediates downstream of covid-19 industrial chain.
The company’s heavy drug intermediates business has great flexibility. The company has great competitiveness in covid-19 industrial chain.
Pfizer covid-19 specific drug industry chain has five core intermediates: carbonic anhydride, azabicyclo, SM1, SM2 and SM3. At present, the company has double heterocyclic nitrogen production capacity. Relying on the cost advantage, it is expected to become an intermediate manufacturer with long industrial chain, complete categories and competitive technology in the short term, with great flexibility. Relying on the first mover advantage in covid-19 industrial chain and antidepressant drugs, we judge that the company also has imagination space in developing new customers.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. We estimate that Great Chinasoft Technology Co.Ltd(002453) from 2021 to 2023, the operating revenue will be RMB 3.02542274817 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB -173584/833 million respectively, corresponding to -109.4/32.3/22.7 times PE respectively (the performance in 2021 will be adjusted according to the impairment) Great Chinasoft Technology Co.Ltd(002453) based on the technical precipitation and customer resources in the field of organic synthesis for many years, the pharmaceutical intermediate business has ushered in large-scale opportunities. Meanwhile, the lithium battery materials business opened a new chapter of growth and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: lithium battery demand is less than expected; This agreement belongs to the cooperation framework intention agreement. Pay attention to risks
