\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released] the announcement of main performance data in 2021. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be about 66.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 15%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 23.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 17%; 2021 single Q4 is expected to achieve a revenue of about 16.5 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 6.02 billion yuan. The revenue and performance of single Q4 have increased by about 11% year-on-year, and the performance is in line with market expectations.
The year ended steadily, with steady growth in the fourth quarter. 1. Under the background of macroeconomic pressure and sporadic outbreak of the epidemic, the company has rational planning & growth confidence, showing strategic determination and growth tenacity. Among them, the price of badaipu and five prices has increased steadily, helping to achieve a benign growth of about 15% throughout the year and successfully achieve the annual growth target; 2. The revenue and performance of single Q4 increased by about 11% year-on-year, which was basically the same as that of single Q3, and continued the steady growth of more than double digits; According to channel research feedback, under the background of low consumer confidence of single Q4 residents, terminal shipments are fast and inventories are low, and the general five rating and terminal prices remain stable as a whole; 3. Looking back on the whole year, the company complied with the trend of consumption upgrading, promoted the promotion of super high-end classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) brand and market cultivation, assisted channel dealers to establish “visiting sales team”, steadily improved terminal quality, and made new breakthroughs in brand and channel construction.
Adhere to the tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and steady development can be expected in 2022. At the 1218 conference, the company believed that “opportunities outweigh challenges” in 2022, clarified the development ideas in 2022, and comprehensively improved the company’s comprehensive competitiveness. 1. In 2022, the company insisted on consolidating the core position of the eight generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) thousand yuan price belt, strengthening the market cultivation of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and expanding the market share of low-grade Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) with four core single products as the core, promoting the brand value and scale of the series; 2. In 2022, we should stabilize the traditional high-quality market, expand highland market, key market and weak market, further improve the market layout and expand group purchase channels; 3. The company adheres to sharing and co construction to build a Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) community with a shared future. In the future, it will reduce the time of channel reporting process, promote more refined assessment, and accelerate the transformation to a service-oriented team.
Personnel adjustment boots fall to the ground, and the Luzhou fragrance King sets sail with strength. 1. At present, the adjustment of the management has been completed, and the new leaders of the company have worked in the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) system for a long time, becoming more consistent in the formulation and implementation of market policies. Under the guidance of the new management, the company is expected to start a new development cycle; 2. At present, the macroeconomic pressure is obvious, the price competition of 1000 yuan has intensified, and the short-term growth is under pressure; However, from the medium and long-term perspective, China’s economy is developing steadily, and the continuous expansion of 1000 yuan price is a long-term trend. The absolute leading position of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Luzhou king and 1000 yuan price is stable. With the new management leading the company into a new development cycle, the marginal reform continues to improve.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.02 yuan, 7.04 yuan and 8.36 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 27 times, 23 times and 19 times respectively. At present, after the adjustment of the management, the company has entered a new development cycle, the marginal improvement is worth looking forward to, and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic
