\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 195 Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) )
Event: the company achieved an operating revenue of 12.422 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 23.59%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.59%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.672 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 20.27%; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 22.65%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.37pct. The company achieved an operating revenue of 3.41 billion yuan in 2021q4, a year-on-year increase of + 17.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 607 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 15.09%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 576 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 14.16%; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 17.79%, with a year-on-year increase of -6.81pct.
The company operated steadily throughout the year and Q4, and its revenue performance basically met expectations. It is expected that the high growth of LED lighting business will drive the overall growth, the high price of raw materials and the pressure on Q4 profit level. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company of 21q4 was -6.81pct year-on-year, and the main reasons for the decline of profitability were as follows: 1) the main raw materials of the company's products were plastic and copper (accounting for about 23% and 12% of the total procurement respectively), which fluctuated upward in the second half of the year, and the rolling hedging lock in the first half of the year or the lower price at the beginning of the year. With the expiration of the lock-in price in the early stage, the pressure of raw material price rise continued to appear; 2) In the early stage of new business development, the profitability is lower than that of advantageous categories, and the increase of proportion has dragged down the overall gross profit margin; 3) Fluctuations in government subsidies. In terms of expenses, the three fee rates of the company in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year. We expect that Q4 will still reasonably control the investment of expenses under the pressure of gross profit. In addition, we observed that the price of plastics, which accounts for a high proportion of the company's costs, has entered the downward channel in early November, which is expected to alleviate the pressure on the cost side of 22q1 to a certain extent, adding to the optimization of the company's product structure, the integration of channels Monopolization drives the release of network benefits, which will boost the restoration of profitability in 22 years.
Basic business: stable terminal demand, expanding b-end + layout low line market, enabling long-term growth. The barriers of converter business channels have been consolidated, and the moderate growth has been maintained by continuously promoting new + expanding use scenarios. At the same time, the large volume of high-profile small household appliances continues to drive the growth of the demand for household electrical products. The leading position of wall socket business is stable. Considering the pressure on the real estate industry in 21 years, the growth of wall socket business is expected to be relatively stable throughout the year. At present, the company focuses on the development of b-end customers of real estate enterprises + decoration enterprises, which is expected to bring new increment.
Development business: the lighting product structure continues to be optimized, and the charging gun / pile and outdoor power supply are connected to the outdoor power consumption scene. The optimization of LED lighting business structure is synchronized with the optimization of profitability, and has launched a rich product matrix without main lights. In the future, it is expected to connect the collaborative lighting + wall opening category into the open source intelligent system, and boost the terminal customer unit price by relying on intelligent development. After the charging gun / pile products are listed, the sales volume rapidly rises to the forefront of the platform by virtue of brand strength, the penetration of new energy vehicles is accelerated, and the stacking car enterprises gradually cancel the pile with the vehicle, which will jointly build a stable demand for the terminal; The listed e-commerce platform of outdoor mobile power products has also formed a certain sales volume. The launch of the two products has helped the company open up the outdoor power consumption scene.
Investment suggestion: as an electrician leader, the company has a clear logic of long-term development: consolidate the leading position of wall socket and converter business in advantageous categories, continue to enable the growth of LED lighting and digital accessories business, incubate new energy businesses such as charging gun / pile and outdoor power supply, and open a wider power consumption scene, Continue to be optimistic about bull's leading position in the field of civil electricians and the growth of the new circuit. Based on the company's new business development needs and the emergence of cost pressure, reduce the gross profit margin and improve the sales expense ratio index, it is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years will be 3.186/3.737 billion yuan (the previous value was 3.410/3.940 billion yuan), and the current stock price corresponds to 25.88x/22.07x PE in 22-23 years, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: there may be differences between the performance express data and the financial data audited by the accounting firm; The risk of macroeconomic slowdown; The risk of intensified market competition; The risk that the development of new business does not meet expectations; The risk that the development of new channels fails to meet the expectations; Risk of price fluctuation of main raw materials
