\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Events
According to official account of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , in March 11th, the new leadership of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Ag first appeared, and in-depth exchanges with the market in 2022 in terms of development goals and implementation path, 14th Five-Year target outlook, and so on, and a new round of high quality development was opened.
Comments
I. development situation: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is in the window period of a new round of high-quality development
1) macro environment: the external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain, but the fundamentals of China’s economic stability and long-term improvement remain unchanged.
2) industry development: Baijiu has strong support for its growth logic and fundamentals, and the price of 1000 yuan will continue to expand.
3) “five basic orientations and patterns”: continuous optimization of product system, continuous improvement of brand value, improvement of market performance volume and price, coordinated development of channel system and continuous improvement of enterprise modernization governance level.
4) five “core advantages” highlight: production area advantages, ancient cellar group advantages, quality advantages, brand advantages and consumer group advantages.
II. The 14th five year plan and 2022 development goals are established, and the company is expected to achieve high-quality development
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the goals of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group and joint stock company are – 1) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group’s “5111” development goals: 1) to create the world’s top 500; 2) The sales revenue of the main business of the wine industry has exceeded 100 billion; 3) The sales revenue of diversified industries has exceeded 100 billion; Strive to build a world-class enterprise with excellent products, excellent brands, leading innovation and modern governance; 2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) shares “2118” development goal: the production capacity of raw wine reaches 200000 tons; The storage capacity of base liquor reaches 1 million tons; Sales revenue exceeded 100 billion; The total amount of profits and taxes reached 80 billion yuan.
In 2022, the goals of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group and joint stock company are respectively – 1) the group company maintains a steady growth of more than double digits; 2) The joint stock company continues to maintain a growth rate higher than that of the group; The company will achieve high-quality development by dealing with volume and price, production and marketing, supply and demand, and coordinate the rhythm of light and peak seasons.
III. realization path of the 14th five year plan: maintain double-digit growth and realize price return in the next four years
In combination with the 14th five year plan of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Co., Ltd., the company will maintain double-digit, steady and high-quality growth in the next four years: sales growth – strive to improve the rate of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) famous liquor, so as to meet the needs and beautiful aspirations of high-quality market share;
Value return – price increase (realizing Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) value through brand value improvement and consumer cultivation)
Reasonable regression); In terms of structural optimization (first, the double channel of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou flavor series liquor; second, the double channel of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) main brand and cultural liquor; third and eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ).
IV. development measures of the 14th five year plan: create ecological quality culture and digital sunshine in one Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858)
1) create an ecological Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , and set up a benchmark for the ecological development of China’s liquor industry: first, make efforts to build an ecological park; Second, we should insist on providing ecological products; Third, we should fully realize ecological production.
2) stick to the quality Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and set up the benchmark for quality construction of Chinese Baijiu industry: first, we must build the largest pure grain solid wine base in the industry. Second, build an industry-leading quality management system; Third, we should abide by integrity and innovation, and strive to improve the rate of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) famous wines
3) carry forward the culture Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , and sort out the cultural construction benchmark of China’s liquor industry: first, cultivate the cultural heritage of the brand, second, dig deep into the cultural connotation of the brand, and third, innovate the communication of the brand culture.
4) build digital Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , set up a benchmark for the digitalization of Chinese Baijiu industry: first, build a first-class digital marketing system; Second, build a first-class digital management system in the industry; Third, build a first-class digital business system in the industry (strive to build a new digital business format to meet the needs of consumption scenarios).
5) build sunshine Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , set up the benchmark for the modernization of Chinese Baijiu industry: first, create sunshine management; two, create sunshine Cooperation (build a company to share and build together); three, build a sunshine team.
V. brand building: Based on quality construction and product system construction
The company will adhere to quality-oriented construction; Adhere to the construction of cultural system as the soul; Adhere to the construction of product system; Adhere to the construction of marketing system; Adhere to the construction of industrial ecosystem as the foundation.
Product system:
1) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) main brand: further strengthen the “1 + 3” product system (“1” is the main brand, with eight generations as the core; “3” is the cellar series represented by 501, the vintage series represented by classics and the cultural and creative series products); 2) Luzhou flavor liquor series: adhere to the requirements of “Three Focuses” (further optimize the relationship between volume and price, consolidate the foundation, and realize the double improvement of scale and quality); 3) Xianlin Ecology: focus on the development of original fruit wine and prepared wine. In terms of channels: the company will continue to strengthen channel construction (make a breakthrough in the highland market), comprehensively strengthen market expansion and strengthen the cultivation of consumer opinion leaders and consumer groups.
Vi. generation 8 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : strengthen precise management, and the channel profit is expected to be comprehensively improved. The company has previously held a marketing meeting, and the company will comprehensively improve the normal profit space of the channel in 2022:
1) relying on the digital marketing system, we will refine and complete the precise channel management, and steadily optimize the amount of traditional channels. The company will further reduce and control the supply quantity of problem areas in the past delivery process, and ensure the scarcity of the eighth generation through accurate delivery. This year’s eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) mobile sales met expectations, with double-digit growth in mobile sales in major regions
Above growth;
2) increase the launch volume of new retail / ka e-commerce channels to ensure that the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) achieves high-quality launch effect. During the Spring Festival, the supply prices of new retail, e-commerce and supermarkets during the Spring Festival are more than 50 / 100 yuan higher than those of traditional channels respectively, and the basic profit margin of channels can achieve 15%, which also ensures the development of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) overall eight generations, and the relationship between volume and price is in line with market expectations and established development goals. In addition, the company will continue to optimize the channel structure.
3) cultural products have become a new profit growth point. In 2022, the company will select merchants with strong distribution ability to cooperate and promote channel profits through cultural and creative wine. At the same time, the company will increase the release of cultural and creative products with high channel profits (maintain the development of high-quality cultural wine such as Zodiac wine and restart products such as plain sailing and taking the lead).
VII. Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : brand building at present and unswervingly practice the strategic position
Eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is a basic product. The company has established the strategy of increasing both quantity and price, and boosted market confidence and brand value through the continuous return of value and price, so as to form a virtuous interactive cycle. Specifically:
1) optimize the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dealers and quota system.
In terms of the number of dealers, based on the market performance in 2021, the company selected nearly 200 high-quality traditional channel dealers to develop the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) market, and did not easily develop dealer customers on this basis; In terms of quota allocation, the company implements the graded quota system, that is, it divides the existing business types into three levels and adopts the quota system to create the scarcity attribute;
2) clarify the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) core market and key market. In 2022, the company will build the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) around the five highland markets of Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, build new channels with experience stores and partners with social resources, focus on consumer cultivation, and tilt the company’s talent resources to five major cities. At the same time, the company will make efforts in 33 traditional channels + enterprise group purchase in key cities, Other cities take brand publicity and consumer cultivation as the normal action.
3) make full use of the platform provider function to realize volume price adjustment and stabilize the price. In 2022, classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is expected to keep the price rising steadily. From March 11, the company will adjust the quantity according to the price through platform providers, so as to ensure the stable and upward development of the price system.
VIII. Series of wines: brand building at present, unswervingly practice the strategic position
In 2022, Luzhou flavor company will adhere to the strategic direction, optimize tactical actions, adjust the development structure and continue to make great contributions:
1) quantity: convey the sense of product scarcity to the market through quantity control;
2) price: promote the return of brand value through gradual price increase;
3) products: the company will focus on building wuliangchun (positioning Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) yuan as the sub high-end price band to expand the waist, in which mingmenchun focuses on the consumption scene of banquet and wine), wuliangchun (positioning 100300 yuan as the price segment, focusing on the middle-end consumers in the consumption scene of banquet and self drinking), special music (400600 yuan, focusing on the wedding scene of business consumption) Jianzhuang (100 yuan price band, cultivating Luzhou flavor taste) four brands;
4) objectives: in 2022, Luzhou flavor company will strive to build 434600 terminals, including 91500 core terminals, by making every effort to build a model market / dynamic marketing work / channel construction / brand image / team capacity-building, consolidate the channel foundation, promote the creation of a model market, promote the continuous growth of sales revenue by more than double digits, So as to continuously promote the scale and value of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Luzhou flavor market.
IX. system and mechanism: the management has strong stability and the incentive mechanism has been continuously improved
Management: at present, the management personnel have a clear division of labor and smooth work connection. Through weekly meetings and regular meetings, they can realize rapid reflection and rapid implementation, and have strong stability and sustainability. In the future, they will maintain the stable growth of the company’s performance through integrity and innovation, making up deficiencies and consolidating excellence. System and mechanism: optimize the three key tasks and continue to promote them: 1) straighten out the management physique of the joint-stock company in the short term and implement the salary reform; 2) In the medium and long term, we will explore long-term mechanisms such as equity incentive, excess profit sharing and follow-up investment; 3) Explore the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises and report to the municipal Party committee and provincial Party committee and government in an orderly manner.
Future: the big ship is setting sail with heavy sail, and the marginal change under underestimated value may be significant
We believe that the decline in valuation in the past year is mainly due to the fact that the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rated price is less than 1000, and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) operation is less than expected; Over the past two months, the stock price performance has been flat, mainly due to the fact that the overall feedback of mobile sales during the Spring Festival is flat, while the rated price has not broken thousands, and the change of management has brought uncertainty to the marketing reform. We believe that:
1) the actual demand is constantly increasing, and 22q1 has a good start and strong certainty: some sales in the same period last year include some goods reissued in previous years. Therefore, the sales volume corresponding to the report end this year has actually increased compared with the same period last year, and the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) value is prominent. In addition, by the end of February, some large businesses had completed the annual payment, and some regions reported that the proportion of payment before the festival was expected to be 40% + (many places in East China, southwest and other places reported that large businesses had basically completed the payment, and small and medium-sized businesses paid 30% +). It is expected that 22q1 company will make a good start with strong certainty.
2) it is expected that the price will exceed 1000 this year, and it is expected to enter the positive circulation channel of operation: the price will not exceed 1000 in 2021, mainly due to the large actual delivery volume; Considering that the problems left over by history (inventory) have been basically solved, and the company has recently formulated guidelines and policies for the 14th five year plan goal / 2022 goal / channel and market reform / specific development direction of each product, the company is expected to take measures to control goods and support prices in 2022 to consolidate the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) position, so the price transmission will be smoother and the approval price will break the millennium, The operation is expected to enter the positive circulation channel.
3) the smooth transition of the management and the value of the layout are obvious: the recent personnel changes mean that the stability of the management will be stronger, and the subsequent formulation and implementation of the company’s policies will be conducted and implemented faster and better after the establishment of the new leadership. Under the background that the valuation has fully reflected the current business status & extremely cost-effective, we believe that although the growth rate of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) performance slowed down significantly in 2022, the adjustment and landing of the management will accelerate the launch of the giant ship with high quality, and the reform dividend may continue to be released in 2023 (the certainty of performance growth is strong), so the current time point is the turning point of operation.
4) in the future: there is a lot of room for volume and price rise, and the 14th five year plan welcomes high-quality development period: from the perspective of the industry, there is a lot of room for volume and price rise, and high-end wine is still in the stage of steady capacity expansion. Volume: high end liquor is in the stage of rapid capacity expansion, and the speed may exceed the market expectation. Price: the expansion speed of 1000 yuan price belt will still exceed expectations, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will continue to enjoy dividends. From the perspective of the company, it will continue to maintain double-digit growth and meet high-quality development in 2022.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the growth rate of the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 is 17%, 15% and 14% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 19%, 18% and 17% respectively, and EPS was 6.1, 7.3 and 8.5 yuan respectively; PE was 28, 24 and 20 times respectively. Considering the accelerated release of the company’s reform dividend, the current valuation is cost-effective, and a buy rating is given.
Catalyst: Baijiu demand is expected to exceed expectations, and prices continue to go up.
Risk warning: 1. Epidemic situation has repeatedly affected Baijiu selling. 2. The price rise is less than expected.
