\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) )
Main announcement data of the company from January to February 2022. After preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 2.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 20%, and the operating indicators set the best record in the same period in history.
Since 2022, the number of tourists in Hainan has continued to recover, the discount has narrowed, and the profit margin has continued to improve. The total number of inbound and outbound flights of Haikou Meilan Airport / Sanya Phoenix Airport in the first two months of 2022 was 27835 / 23471 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24% / 20% respectively, and the number of passengers improved compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the tax-free discount of Hainan outlying islands is also gradually narrowing. According to the company’s performance express in 2021, the net interest rates of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 are 16% / 14% / 22% (including income tax preference in Hainan and rent concession of capital airport) / 6% respectively in 2021, while the net interest rate of the company is about 18% from January to February 2022, and the profitability is significantly improved.
The 22-year assessment index extends to the profit side, and the supplier relationship continues to deepen. In the 21st year, the company continued to expand and increase market share, so as to improve the voice of supply chain negotiation. In the 22nd year, the company plans to increase the assessment of profit indicators and seek benefits from management, so as to realize the continuous improvement of profit margin. On the other hand, over the past year, the relationship between the company and suppliers has been further deepened, and the negotiation influence with upstream suppliers has gradually increased after the scale has increased. Focusing on the main business of tax exemption, the company focuses on key markets. With the improvement of passenger flow and store entry conversion rate, we expect to bring steady growth on the revenue side, reduce the superposition discount, and continuously improve the profit side. The future growth is expected.
Investment suggestion: looking forward to 2022, the company’s profitability is expected to improve significantly and continuously. At the same time, the duty-free market in Hainan continues to expand, with rich categories and services, and the introduction of top luxury is expected to effectively boost the number of people entering the store, conversion rate and customer unit price. We expect the company’s performance in the year of 21 / 22 / 23 to be 9.59/11.5 billion yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 38x / 32x / 27x respectively, which is continuously recommended.
Risk tips: the risk of repeated epidemic, the company’s business situation is less than expected, the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism is less than expected, and the business data from January to February are the preliminary accounting results, which may be different from the actual data. It is only for phased reference, and the performance Express is the preliminary calculation result. The specific financial data shall be subject to the disclosure announcement of the company
