Steady growth depends on what? “Two new and one heavy”!
The proposal of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the 14th five year plan for national economic and social development and the long-term objectives for 2005 focuses on the main tasks and deployment arrangements of “two new and one heavy”. On December 22, the national development and Reform Commission said that it should actively expand effective investment. We will solidly promote the construction of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan. We will increase support for special bonds issued by local governments. Appropriately increase the investment in the central budget, and accurately support the construction of key core technologies, “two new and one heavy” and other projects.
What is “two new and one heavy”? “New urban construction” + “new infrastructure” + “major project construction”
New urbanization construction
The central economic work conference proposed to improve the quality of new urbanization. Wang Menghui, Minister of housing and urban rural development, said in a recent interview with Xinhua that he would further strengthen the promotion of “new urban construction” next year.
The “14th five year plan” new urbanization construction project includes six directions: metropolitan area construction, urban renewal, urban flood control and drainage, county weaknesses, modern community cultivation and urban-rural integration development. Among them, there are three key points worthy of attention.
First, the underground pipe network renewal project.
At the central economic work conference in 2021, Xi Jinping made important instructions, requiring that pipeline reconstruction and construction must be taken as an important infrastructure project during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Han Wenxiu said on December 11 that in case of gas pipeline explosion accidents in some places, it is necessary to strengthen the investigation and transformation of urban underground pipe network and build a people-centered “Lizi” project. On December 22, the national development and Reform Commission said that it would accelerate the completion of short boards in gas pipelines, disaster prevention and reduction, systematically control urban waterlogging, and comprehensively promote the construction of drainage and waterlogging prevention facilities.
Second, the old community reconstruction project. According to the 14th five year plan, we should accelerate urban renewal, complete the transformation of 219000 old urban communities built by the end of 2000, basically complete the transformation of old factories in big cities, transform a number of large old blocks, and transform a number of urban villages according to local conditions. It is estimated that 35 million old urban communities will be transformed during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Third, the construction of indemnificatory rental housing. The central economic work conference proposed to strengthen the expected guidance, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rent and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market and promote the construction of indemnificatory housing. It is estimated that China will supply 2.79 million sets of affordable rental housing in 2022, driving an investment of 337.7 billion yuan.
New infrastructure construction
According to the 14th five year plan, we will lay out and build new infrastructure such as information infrastructure, integration infrastructure and innovation infrastructure around strengthening digital transformation, intelligent upgrading and integrated innovation support.
Han Wenxiu said on December 11 that infrastructure construction should be carried out moderately in advance, and more investment should be made in pollution reduction, carbon reduction, new energy, new technology, Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) clusters and other fields, so as to expand short-term demand and enhance long-term momentum. In the construction of new infrastructure, 5g base station construction, industrial Internet, artificial intelligence, big data center, intercity high-speed rail and urban rail transit, smart charging pile and UHV power transmission will become key investment areas.
Major project construction
On December 20, the national development and Reform Commission said that infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance and put forward the “three front”: first, strengthening infrastructure, second, issuing funds and third, arranging projects. As an important starting point for stabilizing investment, traditional infrastructure construction will work faster. Specifically, we need to pay attention to the following three aspects
First, water conservancy project construction.
According to the 14th five year plan, strengthening water conservancy infrastructure construction focuses on three aspects:
Major water diversion. Promote the follow-up project construction of the east middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer, and build water resources allocation projects in the Pearl River Delta.
Water supply irrigation. Promote the construction of large reservoirs such as Kurgan in Xinjiang, implement the continued construction of supporting facilities for large irrigation areas such as the Hetao of the Yellow River, and promote the construction of large irrigation areas such as Xiangjiaba in Sichuan.
Flood control and disaster reduction. Flood control projects in xiong’an new area, etc.
On December 13, the Ministry of water resources studied and implemented the spirit of the central economic work conference, emphasized the requirements of properly advancing in accordance with the policy, improved the river basin flood control project system and implemented major national water network projects, implemented the continuous construction and modernization of large and medium-sized irrigation areas, and promoted the construction of intelligent water conservancy.
Second, power system engineering construction.
According to the 14th five year plan, we will vigorously increase the scale of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, accelerate the development of distributed energy in the East and middle part, orderly develop offshore wind power, accelerate the construction of hydropower bases in the southwest, safely and steadily promote the construction of coastal nuclear power, build a number of clean energy bases with complementary multi energy, and increase the proportion of non fossil energy in the total energy consumption to about 20%. The national development and Reform Commission said on December 22 that it would actively promote the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi, desert areas and the sea. On December 24, the 2022 national energy work conference proposed to actively and steadily develop hydropower, accelerate the construction of leading reservoirs and power stations in Southwest China, and approved the commencement of a number of major projects.
Third, the construction project of a transportation power.
According to the 14th five year plan, accelerating the construction of a transportation power focuses on:
We should improve the major comprehensive transportation channels and strengthen the construction of strategic backbone channels out of Xinjiang and into Tibet, in the central and western regions, along the river, along the coast and along the border.
Build a fast network, basically connect the “eight vertical and eight horizontal” high-speed railway, improve the quality of the national expressway network, and the mileage of newly reconstructed expressways is 25000km.
We will accelerate the construction of world-class ports and airports, and add more than 30 civil transport airports.
We will promote the integration of transportation in urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, increase the operating mileage of intercity railways and municipal (suburban) railways by 3000 kilometers, and increase the operating mileage of urban rail transit by 3000 kilometers.
Build a multi-level, integrated and comprehensive transportation hub system, and promote the construction of about 120 national logistics hubs.
Where did the money come from? Special debt support + new financing methods
Special debt is an important supporting tool for “two new and one heavy”. At the policy briefing held by the state information office on December 16, song Qichao, head of the budget department of the Ministry of finance, introduced, “In 2022, the special bonds will focus on nine major directions: first, transportation infrastructure, second, energy, third, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, fourth, ecological environmental protection, fifth, social undertakings, sixth, logistics infrastructure such as urban and rural cold chain, seventh, infrastructure of municipal and industrial parks, eighth, major national strategic projects, and ninth, affordable housing projects”, “Give priority to supporting projects included in the outline of the national 14th five year plan” and “increase support for major projects such as water conservancy and urban pipe network construction”. This is also confirmed by the investment of new special bonds from January to November this year.
New infrastructure needs a new way of investment and financing. Different from the traditional investment and financing mode of infrastructure construction, the investment and financing mode of new infrastructure construction has obvious uniqueness, so that the investment and financing mode of traditional infrastructure may not be suitable for new infrastructure construction. In terms of investment mode, in the future, a new infrastructure investment and financing mode will be constructed from five aspects: Innovating the government capital investment mode, innovating the financial credit investment mode, innovating the investment and financing products and services, innovating the enterprise participation in the investment and financing mechanism, and cultivating a sustainable closed-loop investment income.
The strength and rhythm of risk warning policy are lower than the expected risk; Economic growth is slower than expected
