On March 11, China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”) released the production and sales data of automobile industry in February. Data show that in February this year, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.813 million and 1.737 million respectively, down 25.2% and 31.4% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6% and 18.7%.
Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said that affected by the long Spring Festival holiday, the working days in February decreased. In addition, the epidemic situation in some parts of China was more sporadic, which also affected the demand growth of the automobile market to a certain extent, resulting in a significant decline in automobile production and sales month on month.
It is worth mentioning that the performance of new energy vehicles is still a bright spot in the market. In February, the production and sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a month on month decrease of 18.6% and 22.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.0 times and 1.8 times.
Meanwhile, automobile exports in February also continued to maintain a significant growth trend, with a total of 180000 vehicles exported, a month on month decrease of 21.9% and a year-on-year increase of 60.8%.
nickel price rise will not affect industrial supply and demand
According to the data, in February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 368000 and 334000 respectively, down 18.6% and 22.7% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0 times and 1.8 times.
Among the main varieties of new energy vehicles, compared with the previous month, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles decreased, among which the production and sales of pure electric vehicles decreased more significantly. It is reported that in February, China completed the production and sales of 285000 and 258000 pure electric vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times and 1.6 times respectively; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 83000 and 75000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1 times and 3.4 times respectively.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Association, told the reporter of securities times · e company that with the general rise of raw material prices, plug-in hybrid battery models have more cost advantages, so their sales have picked up.
Recently, affected by the rising price of raw materials and other factors, a number of new energy vehicle enterprises have adjusted the price of their models. On March 10, Tesla China’s official website showed that the prices of model 3 high-performance version, model y long-range and high-performance version were increased by 10000 yuan.
According to incomplete statistics by the reporter of securities times · e company, since 2022, 13 auto enterprises have announced to increase the selling price of new energy vehicles, with an increase ranging from 2000 yuan to 10000 yuan.
Recently, LME nickel soared on the London Metal Exchange, which has affected the “sensitive nerves” of many new energy vehicle enterprises.
According to an analysis by Morgan Stanley, if the price of nickel rises by 67.2% in one day, it means that the average input cost of manufacturing each electric vehicle has increased by about $1000.
Xu Haidong analyzed that the rise of nickel price in the short term is a financial market behavior and will not affect the supply-demand relationship of the industry. The rise in the price of raw materials for power batteries is not a new topic. This phenomenon has been very obvious since last year. At present, A00 small electric vehicles may face certain pressure. How can enterprises reduce costs? How to resist pressure? It’s really worth thinking about. However, overall, the market space of A00 electric vehicles will exist for a long time in the future.
Russian Ukrainian conflict affects automobile exports
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in February 2022, China’s automobile export continued to maintain a high growth trend, with a total export of 190000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%. From January to February, automobile exports totaled 412000, with a year-on-year increase of 75.0%.
Among them, the export of new energy vehicles is also a bright spot. In February, 48000 new energy vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 273.7%. On March 11, Xiaopeng automobile also officially announced that its P5 model entered the European market and was officially sold in Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
In recent years, with the continuous improvement of China’s automobile brand power and product power, many automobile enterprises regard the overseas market as an important place for business expansion. However, the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine has brought a certain impact on the way to sea of Chinese car enterprises.
It is reported that at present, Chinese automobile brands including Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chery Automobile and Geely Automobile have exported their vehicles to Russia, among which Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) has also established a local chemical plant in Tula, Russia.
Xu Haidong analyzed that the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the sea of Chinese car enterprises is very intuitive.
According to him, in 2021, China exported 100000 vehicles to Russia and Ukraine, accounting for 5% – 6% of the total car sales. At present, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not clear. The local automobile sales market is almost stagnant. Coupled with the sharp depreciation of the ruble, it is bound to have an impact on the exports of Chinese automobile enterprises to Russia and Ukraine.
The China Automobile Association pointed out that affected by the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the external environment of the automobile industry is more complex, the shortage of chips, the continuous rise of raw material prices and other factors will have a sustained impact on the production experience of enterprises, and the task of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is very arduous. At present, the association is cautiously optimistic about the future development of China’s automobile industry, and suggests that enterprises pay timely attention to the changes of internal and external situation, actively plan and look for new opportunities in the crisis.
