After days of haze, A-Shares finally staged a "V-shaped" rebound on the last trading day of this week.
On March 11, A-Shares opened low in the morning, and the three major stock indexes fell by more than 2% by midday; In the afternoon, A-Shares staged a "V-shaped" rebound, and the three indexes rose collectively. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.41%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.62% and the gem index rose 1.15%.
In terms of capital, the transaction volume of the two cities exceeded trillion for the seventh consecutive trading day, and the north capital was sold for the fifth consecutive day, with a net sales of 5.042 billion yuan.
On the disk, the financial sector strongly supported the market, securities companies' stocks rose in the afternoon, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) , Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) limit, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) , Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) , Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) and other stocks rose by more than 5%; The banking sector rose due to changes, with Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) rising by more than 8%, followed by Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) . In addition, covid-19 detection concept stocks lifted the limit tide, with digital currency, tourism, agriculture and other sectors leading the rise.
Galaxy Securities believes that the fundamentals of the securities industry continue to improve and the profitability is improved. Some securities companies issued performance forecasts for 2021, and all of them achieved profits. The performance of head securities companies is high, and the strong is always strong. The government work report calls for the full implementation of the stock registration system and the acceleration of the full registration system, which will benefit the leading securities companies with significant advantages of investment banks.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) said that with the annual report and the first quarterly report window approaching, the A-share market still has a meal market in the first half of the year. In terms of industry configuration, with the advent of the verification period of the first quarterly report, the boom track leaders such as new energy, semiconductors, medicine and military industry are expected to usher in phased repair, and the necessary consumer sectors such as agriculture, food, textile and clothing benefiting from inflation expectations are also expected to usher in performance repair. In the medium term, social service, retail, catering, shipping and other offline economic recovery related industries are also ushering in the layout window period.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, as of the close, the Hang Seng Index bottomed out and closed down 1.61%, and the Hang Seng technology index fell 4.28%, a record low. Covid-19 detection sector of Hong Kong stocks continued to rise in the afternoon, with 14 stock sealed daily limit sectors including Shanghai Labway Clinical Laboratory Co.Ltd(301060) , Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) .
The sharp drop in Hang Seng technology index today was partly dragged down by the sharp drop in the share prices of major component stocks meituan and Ali. The two companies fell 6.1% and 5.52% respectively today.
Yan Zhaojun, a strategic analyst at Zhongtai international, pointed out that after the next test of 20000 points, the equity risk premium of Hang Seng Index has risen to the historical 95.5 quantile, and the predicted P / E ratio is close to negative two standard deviations. From the long-term dimension, the current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is cost-effective and is a buying opportunity.
He believes that in the short term, overseas risk aversion reduces the incremental funds flowing into Hong Kong stocks, while the high volatility of the US NASDAQ index has brought some disturbance to the constituent stocks of the Hong Kong Science Index. On the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next week, Hong Kong stocks are expected to usher in a short-term rebound window under the marginal repair of sentiment.
\u3000\u3000 "At present, the market unanimously expects the fed to slow down the pace of short-term interest rate hike, but there is still uncertainty about the pace of interest rate hike and table contraction in the medium term. The 10-year and 2-year term interest rate spread of US bonds is only 42 points, and the Fed may tend to shrink the table to broaden the term interest rate spread. Once officials release the faster progress of table contraction after the meeting, it may bring a new wave of valuation revaluation pressure to the global stock market. In terms of industry, It is expected that new and old infrastructure, wind and new energy power generation, high-end manufacturing and necessary consumption are expected to run out in the recent rebound. " Yan Zhaojun said.
He pointed out that if referring to the history of the past 15 years, if investors predict that PE is less than 10 times or equity risk premium is higher than the 90th percentile in the Hang Seng Index, the average return in the next six months will be 10.4% and the average return in the following year will reach 22.5%. Therefore, there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the short-term Hong Kong stocks. Even if there is no position increase, it is obviously not the time to sell the stop loss.
"The risk is rising, but the opportunity is falling. The excess return is often the opposite when others panic." Yan Zhaojun believes that it is necessary to distinguish which factors really affect the fundamentals of the company and which only affect the market atmosphere or mood. Single information, such as the delisting pressure of zhonggai shares, has little impact on the company's daily operation, which may only make investors increase their risk premium or liquidity discount. Excellent enterprises can often lead investors through cattle and bears.
