February Market Review:
Viewpoint review: on December 26, we judged that the current market is in the “bottom grinding period” in “bottom grinding! More patience is needed during bottom grinding”. January 23: heart to light: persistence is victory Once again, it is emphasized that the recovery of market sentiment needs to wait for key signals such as clear policy expectations, improvement of incremental funds and stability of the external environment. Mid February will be an important allocation window period. On February 6, “the current is the bottom of the strategy: the wind and rain are gradually stopped, and the dawn is now”, pointed out that the short-term market risk appetite has warmed up. On February 13, “turning to positional warfare: if steady growth fails, high prosperity will be difficult to flourish”, depicts the internal logical relationship between steady growth and high prosperity rotation, and puts forward “let the bullet fly for a while”. On February 20, the “rebound continues! Don’t take” foresight “as” near worry “put forward that the market’s expectations of policies and fundamentals have been significantly improved, and there is no need to worry about the verification of subsequent economic data. In terms of market performance in February, the market stopped falling and rebounded, and the structural market slowly expanded, showing the characteristics of “steady growth and high prosperity”.
In February, the market stabilized and the growth and value style rotated rapidly. In the first half of the month, the value style represented by the old infrastructure performed relatively well, while the new energy continued to rebound in the second half of the month. The old infrastructure sector spit back all the gains since this year, reflecting the characteristics of “steady growth and high prosperity”. The reason for the rapid rotation of growth and value style is that in the period of empty window of fundamental data, the market expectation fluctuates frequently under the disturbance of events, which makes it difficult to grasp the inflection point.
The recent economic data as a whole shows the characteristics of gradual policy development and improvement of demand margin. From January to February, there was a relative lack of economic data. From the perspective of financial data and some high-frequency data and information, the wide credit has been determined, the infrastructure has made some efforts, but it is not obvious, and the real estate has not been significantly improved. Compared with the fundamentals themselves, the expected improvement is relatively obvious. Since mid February, social finance has made a good start in January. Many provinces have announced the list of major projects and actively started construction. Many places have relaxed real estate related policies, and the previous pessimistic expectations have been gradually revised.
Viewpoint reflection: the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war exceeded expectations, global inflation heated up, and global market risk aversion heated up. In the short term, the Russian Ukrainian war and soaring commodity prices have made it more difficult for developed countries to choose between economic growth and price stability, and the risk of global economy entering stagflation has increased. In the medium and long term, the Russian Ukrainian war may aggravate the confrontation between the East and the West and the internal differences between the United States and Europe.
Market outlook for March:
For the current market, there are four main lines: steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation. During this period, the trading logic of global inflation is rising, which makes: 1. The market of energy products is relatively dominant; 2. The overvalued value is under further pressure; 3. The transmission of pessimistic expectations from peripheral markets, especially the US stock market; 4. Cost shocks continue to suppress the midstream manufacturing industry. For the worry about global inflation, we believe that although it may be difficult to end in the short term, we may pay more attention to its structural impact under the policy tone dominated by us. The follow-up space and sustainability of global inflation in the future still need further observation on the Fed’s interest rate hike, China’s economic fundamentals and transmission to a shares.
For the market as a whole, the most important thing is to grasp the inflection point expectation of the improvement of molecular end fundamentals. We have always been full of confidence in the effect of the government and policies. The current policy signal is conducive to correcting the overly pessimistic expectation of molecular fundamental profits. Here, we emphasize once again that the current market is at the bottom of the strategy, with a bright heart and no conditions for systematic decline. It is unlikely that the equity market will enter a unilateral downward trend similar to that in 2012. Considering the release of US inflation data and China’s economic data for some time in the future and the advent of the Fed meeting, the overall equity market still needs some time to digest the macro level uncertainty. The further upward space of the market may be limited, and the overall shock pattern will be maintained, but the structural market is still expected.
In studying and judging the relationship between high prosperity and steady growth, we put forward two sentences: the first sentence is called “stable growth cannot afford, high prosperity is difficult to prosper”, and the second sentence is called “steady growth can be realized, and high prosperity will turn for the better”. To a certain extent, in December last year and January this year, it reflected a situation of “stable growth can not afford, high prosperity is difficult to prosper”. Then, if we go back, we will gradually realize the process of steady growth and high prosperity.
We have always been full of confidence in the effect of the government and policies. The current policy signal is conducive to correcting the overly pessimistic expectation of molecular fundamental profits. Here, we once again emphasize that the current market is at the bottom of the strategy, has a bright heart and does not have the conditions for systematic decline. Similar to 2012, the possibility of unilateral decline in the equity market is low, and the structural market is still firm and predictable. We maintain the judgment that we are currently in a “positional war” (strategic stalemate, stick to positions, maintain concentration, and it is not suitable for switching back and forth). The consensus of the market will focus on the low position, looking for growth + short term (Q1 performance exceeds expectations and strong policy support).
Finally, in March, the market will pay more attention to the performance of the first quarter report. Q1 profit exceeding expectations is still the direction highly recognized by the current market. Judging from the current fundamental guidance, through the Anxin strategy – Industrial track prosperity tracking system, the Q1 performance focused on is expected to exceed the expected segmentation direction, focusing on intelligence (smart car, smart equipment (AR, VR direction is obvious), digital economy (data center, Cloud Computing)), new energy (photovoltaic, upstream lithium) New materials (cathode materials, EVA, PVDF, etc.) and PPI chains (aluminum, potash fertilizer, phosphorus chemical industry, petrochemical industry, soda ash, etc.) benefiting from the continuous rise of global commodity prices.
Risk tip: the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the policy was less than expected, the Sino US relations deteriorated again, and the overseas monetary policy changed
