Macro categories:
In February, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.9% year-on-year, hitting another 40-year high. The rising inflation is still forcing the central bank to tighten monetary policy and bringing greater downward pressure on the economy. The European Central Bank's interest rate meeting also unexpectedly released an eagle. In addition to accelerating the process of reducing bond purchase, it also deleted the "commitment to end the asset purchase plan not long before the interest rate increase", emphasizing that "it is ready to appropriately adjust all tools to ensure that inflation is stable at the target of 2% in the medium term". The news increased the probability of interest rate increase by the European Central Bank during the year. On March 2, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell mentioned "starting to reduce the balance sheet after the first interest rate increase", which does not rule out the possibility of starting to reduce the balance sheet from March to April. In the follow-up, we need to be vigilant against the negative impact of table shrinkage on financial assets. We back test that since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with financial assets, with a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68. In addition, in the shrinking stage from 2017 to 2019, the correlation between the commodity index and the Fed's balance sheet was -0.29, and the higher correlations in the commodity sector were grains (- 0.81), agricultural and sideline products (- 0.68) and soft commodities (0.82).
In terms of the situation between Ukraine and Russia, with the successive statements of Russia and Ukraine, it can be seen that the attitudes of both sides have softened. The subsequent negotiations will focus on the Russian demand that "Ukraine recognizes that the Crimea region belongs to Russia and recognizes the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk". At present, the most intense stage of the incident is probably over, At present, various asset prices have begun to trade, and the logic of the reversal of the situation in Ukraine and Russia.
At present, we see that it still takes time for China's loose policies to be transmitted to the real economy. We always believe that the first quarter is the bottom grinding stage of domestic demand, and domestic demand will gradually rebound in the second quarter. Under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, the short-term market may fluctuate and adjust. After domestic demand stabilizes and further improves, we suggest to continue to buy domestic demand industrial products on bargain hunting in the medium term; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; In terms of precious metals, as the CPI of the United States in January hit a new high since the 1980s, supported by the logic of overseas stagflation, the risk of superimposing Russia Ukraine conflict still exists, and precious metals maintained the view of bargain hunting and long; The continuous favorable policies of the two sessions, coupled with Tianliang social financing and continuous liquidity easing, will support the profit expectation of listed enterprises. We still maintain the view that the shareholding index is bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
