Since the formal outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on February 24, 2022, as of March 8, CITIC automobile sector has decreased by 12.4%, ranking first among all primary industries. As the supply chain of the automobile industry is more globalized, the impact on the industrial chain is also more prominent. The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the automotive industry is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: ① raw materials: electrical gas and non-ferrous metals; ② Main engine factory outside China; ③ Foreign parts suppliers. On the whole, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had a certain impact on the short-term supply of raw materials in the upstream of the industry, resulting in obvious price fluctuations, but it did not endanger the security of the supply chain. In addition, there are many international OEMs and tier in Russia and Ukraine, which are more affected, while the impact on Chinese enterprises is very limited.
Impact on raw materials: ① electronic special gas (neon, krypton, xenon): electronic special gas is the key material for manufacturing chips, involving vehicle specification chips, mainly including power management chip (PMIC), micro electromechanical system (MEMS), MOSFET components, IGBT and other power semiconductor components. According to the report released by techcet in February 2022, Ukraine supplies about 70%, 40% and 30% of neon, krypton and xenon respectively. At present, the supply chain of rare gas related semiconductor companies is not affected for 6 months. ② Non ferrous metals (palladium, nickel, aluminum): Russia is an important producer of palladium, nickel, aluminum and other non-ferrous metals. In 2021, the output of the three metals accounted for 37%, 9.3% and 5.4% of the world respectively. At present, palladium is mainly used in catalytic converters of exhaust system of fuel vehicles. The penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China is increasing rapidly, and the demand for palladium is decreasing. However, South Africa and other countries can also form a good supplement to the global palladium supply by increasing production capacity; The high nickel price will put great pressure on the cost of power batteries, but Indonesia and other major nickel exporting countries will also supplement the global supply in the medium and long term by increasing production capacity; China itself is the world’s largest aluminum exporter, and the risk of China’s aluminum supply is small.
Impact on parts enterprises: ① international Tier1: the local businesses of Lenny, anbofu, Magna and Sumitomo electrician have been greatly affected, resulting in an impact on the EU harness supply; ② Chinese parts suppliers: Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) responded to the impact by changing production in China, Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) and other manufacturers have declared that the company operates normally, and the business of other Chinese manufacturers in Poland has not been affected for the time being.
Impact on Vehicle Enterprises: ① international OEMs: in 2021, the sales volume of Renault Nissan, Hyundai Kia, Volkswagen and Toyota in Russia accounted for 7%, 6.9%, 2.3% and 1.1% respectively. Renault Nissan and Hyundai Kia were directly affected, while the production of some factories in Germany was greatly affected by the shortage of parts supply in Ukraine. ② Chinese OEMs: in 2021, Chinese manufacturers sold 124000 sets in Russia, accounting for 7.5% of the local market share. Among them, Chery, great wall and Geely accounted for 4.25%, 3.05% and 2.54% respectively, accounting for a small proportion of their respective businesses, and the impact is also very limited.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the of industrial transformation α， The tide of the times β。 In February 2022, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles increased to 21.8%, the automotive industry changed, the gross profit margin of Tesla and new forces continued to increase, and the performance of Tesla‘s domestic suppliers generally increased rapidly; Tesla wave brings vehicle valuation revaluation, NOA function redefines, smart cars trigger an arms race, hardware stacking, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the automotive industry.
Three main lines are recommended:
Intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: intelligent definition of automobile, arms race, hardware stacking and domestic substitution usher in historical opportunities. \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) .
Tesla industrial chain & parts: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting. \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
Vehicle: Tesla wave brings vehicle valuation revaluation & strong vehicle cycle OEM, recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , focus on Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) .
Risk tip: the risk of further escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; Risk of further deterioration of global core shortage; The factory production of Chinese complete vehicle and parts manufacturers in Russia, Ukraine and surrounding countries is more affected by the conflict; The export business of Chinese vehicle and parts manufacturers in Eastern Europe is more affected by the conflict; The supply of electronic special gas is less than expected; The supply of non-ferrous metals is less than expected; International freight rates continued to rise; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; The prosperity of the industry is lower than expected; The global macro economy is less than expected.
