Key points:
The broad digital virtual human index is a virtual character with a digital shape. Breaking the physical boundary and providing anthropomorphic services and experience is its core value. Hyper realism, instrumentalization and strong interaction are the development trend. We believe that the development trend of digital virtual human technology: (1) break through the two directions of super realism and close to real people at the visual level, or stylize and emphasize aesthetic expression. (2) Technology instrumentalization provides low-cost and efficient technology for creating virtual human for ordinary consumers, artists and enterprises, and speeds up its application in various fields. (3) Strong interaction, which provides an experience close to real-time natural communication with real people. The sense of interaction and immersion brought to users is the core driving force of most consumers. Since the germination of virtual human in the field of film, television and music in the last century, with the rapid development of hardware and software technology, virtual human has developed towards intelligence, convenience, refinement and diversification.
Virtual human production technology has been comprehensively improved and broken through, and the realization of virtual human that can interact naturally still needs Technological Development: the general system framework of digital virtual human includes character image, voice generation, animation generation, audio and video synthesis display and interaction modules. The industrial process of digital virtual human visual production covers modeling, bone binding, driving, rendering and so on. According to the classification of driving technology, it can be divided into interactive and non interactive. The interactive category is further divided into human and computer-driven. At present, human driver is the mainstream, and computer driver has high requirements for artificial intelligence and other technologies. At present, only mouth action can realize intelligent synthesis. Natural interaction depends on artificial intelligence deep learning technology, and the final effect depends on the common development of speech synthesis, NLP technology, speech recognition and other technologies.
Based on application and scenario, content, operation and core, metauniverse will further open the imagination space of virtual human application scenario: the application field can be divided into identity type (the core lies in IP and human design) and service type (virtual assistant instead of human simple interaction and multi-modal assistant with deep interaction). We predict that the market scale of China’s digital virtual human will reach 270 billion yuan in 2030, and the market scale of virtual idol, virtual avatar, virtual assistant and multimodal assistant will reach 1474 / 262 / 115 / 84 billion yuan respectively.
(1) virtual idols: after the birth of the first generation of two-dimensional virtual idols such as chuyin future and luotianyi in 2010, they synthesize sound with CG technology + Yamaha vocaoid software, and their presentation forms and commercialization scenes continue to enrich with technological progress; Byte beat and Lehua entertainment launched the virtual idol group asoul in 2020 and quickly became the top stream; Burning wheat Technology launched the virtual super realistic digital man ayayi in 2021, and Chuangyi Technology launched the super realistic virtual up Master Liu Yexi in 2021, mainly in the form of static pictures and videos. The profit model of virtual idols mainly includes performing arts activities, live broadcasting with goods, live broadcasting reward and commercial endorsement, and the surrounding derivatives have great development potential. The head virtual idol live broadcast pit fee and reward income can be compared with the shoulder live anchor. In terms of commercial endorsement, the head super realistic virtual idol has received more than 10 endorsements. According to AI media, the core market scale of Chinese Virtual idols in 2020 was 3.46 billion yuan, yoy + 69.3%; The market scale was 64.56 billion yuan, yoy + 70.3%.
(2) virtual separation: the identity needs of individuals to create unique images for themselves in the virtual world have been repeatedly verified in social networking, games, film and television and other fields, and there are mature profit models. ① Games: game manufacturers have better virtual image technology precipitation; ② Social networking: soul, zepeto and other virtual social products are popular, casting the basic entrance and supporting framework of the meta universe. ③ Film and television: China’s film and television digital human special effects technology (mobile capture, CG, etc.) has achieved rapid development. We expect that the market scale of China’s special effects industry is expected to exceed 10 billion.
(3) virtual assistant: it is used to replace real-life services in scenes with relatively simple interaction requirements, such as news broadcast host, cultural and tourism navigation, financial customer service, education, product description, etc. Such products have low requirements for image accuracy, interaction and human design. Instead, such products have low requirements for image accuracy, interaction and human design.
(4) multimodal assistant: in general / specific scenes, multimodal assistant provides services such as consultant, care, company and transaction processing based on real person image, provides a sense of care and reality, and has high requirements for user system personalization, virtual human personification and interaction ability. Therefore, we believe that artificial intelligence developers and Internet / hardware head manufacturers have great comparative advantages.
Investment suggestion: the virtual human industry chain mainly includes the basic layer (basic software and hardware such as modeling / rendering engine), platform layer (software and hardware systems such as mobile capture, vertical platform and AI manufacturers) and application layer. With the breakthrough of underlying technology and hardware, more application scenarios will be enabled. Based on this, the industry will be rated as “recommended”. The head integrated large factory has a good foundation in technology precipitation, IP operation and traffic. It prefers to explore the underlying technology, hardware architecture and make instrumental products for the company’s business applications. The industrial chain layout is relatively comprehensive, such as overseas meta, Google, etc; China Tencent, Alibaba, station B, Netease, Baidu, byte, etc. A-share media companies are mainly involved in the provision of platform layer vertical solutions and application layer. It is suggested to focus on: Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) (launch the SaaS product of “separation and skill” digital human driven platform in cooperation with Microsoft Xiaobing; jointly promote the solution of virtual anchor live e-commerce with aridamo Academy; self operated / brand customized virtual human) Beijing Jetsen Technology Co.Ltd(300182) (the joint-stock company Shiyou technology provides mature technical products and solutions for multiple scenes such as radio and television media, virtual anchor live broadcast and virtual scene, film and television animation virtual content production, and plans to launch metaavatarshow meta universe separation, Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) (the self incubated virtual network Hongjun ruojin and LAN LAN have endorsement orders for cars / food / e-commerce; the digitalhuman platform has been launched; part of the capital is planned to be invested in the technical development of virtual digital human field), Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) (launch the virtual image Aimee and commercial trial; launch Jingtian and angelababy virtual images) Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) (plan to launch virtual people in 2022 or to participate in live broadcasting with virtual anchor), Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) (online Red yuan universe virtual social networking community Honnverse rainbow universe, famous virtual red fish, too idle on-line rainbow universe). Other suggestions: application marketing fields Leo Group Co.Ltd(002131) , Tangel Culture Co.Ltd(300148) , Beijing Quanshi World Online Network Information Co.Ltd(002995) , etc; Hardware dynamic capture direction Leyard Optoelectronic Co.Ltd(300296) ; AI direction Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , Shangtang technology, etc.
Risk tips: user growth is less than expected, user acceptance is less than expected, user privacy data risk, business model development is less than expected, copyright protection risk, increased competition risk, high technology cost risk, core talent drain risk, technology development and evolution is less than expected, legal and policy supervision risk, valuation Center downward risk, etc.
