\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Events
After preliminary accounting, the company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of about 1.4 billion yuan (+ 120%) from January to February 2022; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 465 million yuan (+ 130%), and the profit performance is higher than expected.
Key investment points
Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) welcome the peak season with higher than expected growth and excellent performance of dynamic sales
Compared with previous years, the company’s early account closing + slight control of goods + fast progress of payment collection + rapid development outside the province + steady upgrading of structure laid the foundation for Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) opening better than expected; In addition, the company focused on payment collection and inventory digestion in January and price channel maintenance from February to March. During the Spring Festival, the price of products was stable (the rated price of domestic ginseng and laohongtan was about 820 / 295 yuan respectively) and the inventory was healthy.
In the next 22 years, ginseng is expected to continue its high growth trend and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series will develop steadily
First, internal reference: after its new popularity in September 21, the pricing in the province is stable. Considering that the company’s overall direction for internal reference this year is still to strictly implement the quota system in the province to control the quantity and ensure the price, expand outside the province to increase the profit + will continue to increase the number of dealers and exclusive stores + the basic target of internal reference sales caliber this year is 2.445 billion. Internal reference is expected to continue its high growth trend in 2022, The proportion of revenue is expected to reach 40%, and it is expected that the company will launch new products in the first half of the year.
Second, drunkard series: as hongtan has gradually completed the replacement of new and old ones, the company will continue to focus on building hongtan (a separate team will be established later and special subsidies will be given). At present, the proportion has increased to nearly 30%, with the fastest growth rate; Transparent clothes and inheritance purple altar account for about 20% and 10% respectively. It is expected that under the strong waist strategy, the red altar will continue to increase. Third, Xiangquan series + interior products: as an entry-level cultivation series of fragrance type, the company will continue to improve the quality of Xiangquan and gradually realize the increase of price under a stable volume. The income of Xiangquan + interior products accounted for about 15% in 21 years, among which the interior products focusing on wedding banquet scenes continue to grow at a high base.
The objectives of the 14th five year plan show confidence, increase internal participation and ensure performance
At present, COFCO group has regarded ” Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ” as one of the five key development brands of the group. At the same time, the company strives to exceed 3 billion, exceed 5 billion and strive to reach 10 billion to demonstrate its confidence. Taking into account: in the past 22 years, the high-end and large-scale price of neishen liquor is expected to achieve a high increase Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series is expected to share the development dividend of secondary high-end liquor and realize product upgrading and sales at favorable prices; Xiangquan series will control the quantity and raise the price; The market share in the province will increase steadily, and the key markets outside the province are expected to accelerate the horizontal expansion; The national standard of fragrant liquor was officially promulgated; The production capacity has increased steadily, and we believe that Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) will continue to achieve high-quality growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company’s revenue growth from 2021 to 2023 will be 86.5%, 47.6% and 27.2% respectively; The growth rate of net profit was 89.3%, 52.5% and 28.2% respectively; EPS is 2.9, 4.4 and 5.6 yuan / share; PE was 56, 37 and 29 times respectively. Considering the strong certainty of the company’s annual performance, the current valuation is cost-effective, and the buy rating is maintained.
Catalyst: Baijiu demand exceeds expectations; The internal driving pin keeps improving.
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic affects China’s two outbreak or prevention and control upgrade, affecting Baijiu‘s overall sales recovery. The situation of Guoyuan movable pin was less than expected.
