\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Events
In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 13.271 billion yuan (+ 28.95%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.291 billion yuan (+ 23.54%); Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.201 billion (+ 24.14%); 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 3.169 billion yuan (+ 42.58%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 322 million yuan (+ 1.66%); Deduct 299 million yuan of net profit not attributable to parent company (+ 10.06%)
Comments
The profit of 21q4 was lower than expected mainly due to the provision of expenses, and the annual structure was still improving steadily
The revenue growth rate of 21q4 increased significantly month on month, and the net profit margin was lower than expected. The main reason was that the company accrued part of the expenses (part of which were one-time) to 21q4, with a higher structure of superimposed advance receipts, which accumulated strength for 22-year development; Throughout the year, it is expected that the revenue of gu16 and above will nearly double in 21 years, gu8 will achieve steady growth, Mingguang's performance will slightly exceed expectations, Huanghelou will complete the promised revenue, the potential energy of high-priced wine will be released, driving the product structure to move up steadily, and the company will end in 21 years.
Spring Festival sales in Anhui Province exceeded expectations, laying the foundation for structural upgrading for economic development in the province
In the short term, benefiting from the year-on-year increase in demand during the Spring Festival (under the slightly relaxed control of the epidemic situation, the low base + excellent performance in the catering scene), Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) all price band products have achieved higher than expected growth, excellent payment collection performance and stable pricing (the pricing of gift version / 5 / 8 / 16 / 20 is about 80 / 115 / 220 / 320340 / 550 yuan / bottle respectively), and the strong demand for replenishment of inventory has laid the foundation for the high growth of 22q1 performance; In the medium and long term, the company will take "maintaining the scale of gu8 and below products and promoting the growth of gu16 and above products" as the main direction in 22 years. Relying on the rapidly developing economy in the province, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) is expected to continue to enjoy the bonus of capacity expansion and upgrading in the province. With the continuous promotion of the company's system reform, the profit margin in 22 years will have a good performance.
High speed development will be achieved outside the province, and the proportion of the 14th five year plan is expected to reach 50%
The company develops the market in the province through structural upgrading & intensive cultivation; Outside the province, we will achieve large-scale growth in multiple regions by means of investment promotion according to local conditions and refined cost investment. It is expected that the target of 50% outside the province can be achieved with high quality in the 14th five year plan.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 28.5%, 27.2% and 21.9% respectively; The growth rate of net profit was 23.5%, 45.0% and 34.2% respectively; EPS is 4.6, 6.7 and 9.0 yuan / share respectively; The corresponding PE is 44, 30 and 22 times respectively. Considering the long-term logic of the company remains unchanged, the company gives a buy rating.
Risk tips: 1. Macroeconomic downturn; 2. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
