\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 808 Shenzhen Ellassay Fashion Co.Ltd(603808) )
In 2021, the performance (deducting Non Profits) increased by 37% ~ 47%. 1) According to the announcement of the company, the revenue in 2021 is about 2.3 ~ 2.4 billion yuan (we estimate that it will increase by 17% ~ 22% year-on-year in 2020 / single digit increase in comparable caliber year-on-year in 2019), the performance is about 310 ~ 330 million yuan (we estimate that it will decrease by 26% ~ 30% year-on-year in 2020 / about 10% year-on-year in 2019), and the non performance is deducted by 260 ~ 280 million yuan, An increase of 37% ~ 47% year-on-year in 2020 (in 2020, the company transferred the equity of its subsidiary baiqiu network, resulting in a one-time profit of 298 million yuan before tax). 2) In a single quarter, we estimate that the revenue / performance of 2021q4 has a double-digit growth / basically flat year-on-year in 2019, and the operation is stable. 3) Profit quality: we estimate that the net profit margin of the company will be about 14% in 2021, and the profitability will recover significantly.
The diversity of brand matrix blossoms, and new brands grow rapidly. We split tiktok's sales revenue in 2021: 1) the main brand ELLASSAY has recovered well, launched the series of "top game player", increased the number of Direct stores, and launched vip.com and jitter on the Internet platform, with annual revenue rising by 9% to 1 billion 20 million yuan. 2) The expansion of Laur è l stores was synchronized with the improvement of store efficiency, and the revenue potential was released. The annual revenue increased significantly by 68% to 250 million yuan. 3) The annual revenue of ED hardy brand increased by 43% to 310 million yuan, which is still under continuous adjustment. 4) Iroparis' annual revenue increased by 9% to 590 million yuan. According to our tracking, since the second half of 2021, with the recovery of overseas epidemic and the obvious recovery of brands, the depreciation of the euro has pulled down the growth rate of reported revenue. 5) Self portal, a new fashion brand, has developed rapidly since its launch. It has actively used social media precision marketing, with an annual revenue of 180 million yuan, 5.3 times that of the previous year. Adjust the strategic layout and comprehensively optimize the channels, marketing and supply chain. 1) Channel side: the overall strategy is inclined to e-commerce, and the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) . With the continuous recovery of offline sales and the optimization of store structure, online retail has accelerated the layout of new retail with the help of multiple platforms. We judge that the annual online sales in 2021 have increased significantly compared with 2019. 2) Marketing side: take consumers as the center, improve the shopping guide training system, and fully support community marketing, including building a live broadcasting operation platform, building an independent live broadcasting team, etc. 3) Supply chain side: accelerate the transformation of digital intelligence in the supply chain and strictly control orders to improve inventory. The company's inventory turnover days in the first three quarters of 2021 were 288 days, a year-on-year decrease of 27 days.
The business has basically entered the channel of steady development. The performance of the company's main brand is stable, and the new brand is growing rapidly. With channel adjustment and operation optimization, we believe that the company's business is expected to grow steadily in the future. Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, we estimate that the performance is expected to return to the level of 2019.
Investment advice. The company is the leader of light luxury fashion in China, with continuous multi brand strategy optimization and channel adjustment. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 320 / 3.6 / 410 million respectively, with the current price of RMB 12.02, corresponding to 12.5 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk warning: the impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations; The macroeconomic depression leads to weak consumption; The franchise business is less than expected; The expansion and opening of new brands are not going well.
