\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) )
Events
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) released the operation data announcement from January to February 2022, and the company achieved an operating revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 2.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year
Key investment points
In the first two months, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.4 billion yuan / + 20%, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 18.3%
According to the company’s business data announcement from January to February 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was about 18.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6pct, excluding the impact of income tax preference, with a year-on-year increase of about 0.8pct. We believe that it is mainly due to the relatively high proportion of individual tourists in Hainan during the peak tourism season from January to February, the recovery of China free Hainan universal discount to 85%, and the company began to ask for benefits from the management this year and pay attention to the assessment of profit indicators.
From January to February, the passenger volume of Haikou airport increased by 31% year-on-year. We expect that the income from tax exemption in Hainan in the first two months will be about 10.5 billion yuan, and the operating net interest rate after adding back the deduction point will rise to more than 20%. Considering the impact of income tax preference, we expect the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company to be about 2.15 billion yuan; The income from daily direct mail + other channels is about 2.6 billion yuan, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of about 250 million yuan.
In March, the passenger flow in Hainan was affected by local epidemics in many places, and it is expected that the sales in Hainan will not be under pressure
According to the official microblog of Haikou Meilan Airport, the average daily passenger volume from March 1 to 10 decreased by 27% year-on-year, 72% and 80% respectively in January and February, mainly affected by the local epidemic; In addition, considering that Sanya Haitangwan store will be closed from 14:00 on the 3rd to 7:00 on the basis of the prevention and control policy, we expect that the revenue of China free Hainan in March will be slightly under pressure, and it is estimated that the net profit of Q1 will be flat to slightly increased year-on-year.
Profit forecast and valuation
Under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, we think the company still has great growth space. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company of China tax exemption from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 9.6 billion, 12.0 billion and 14.5 billion respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 4.91, 6.15 and 7.43/share respectively, giving the company 40 times the Pe2 in 2022, corresponding to the target price of RMB 246.04/share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The policy is less than expected, the tax-free sales of outlying islands are less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies the risk.
