\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Event:
The company released the main business data announcement from January to February 2022. During the Spring Festival, the sales of the company's products increased well and achieved a "good start". From January to February, the company is expected to realize a total operating revenue of 2.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 940 million yuan, an increase of about 26% at the same time.
Key investment points:
1. The Spring Festival has made a successful start, and 2022q1 is expected to continue its high growth. From January to February 2022, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 25% and 26% respectively year-on-year, and the performance was in line with expectations. During the Spring Festival, some dealers made progress in the process of payment, and the terminal sales remained high. Considering the Baijiu industry's low season in March, 2022Q1 is expected to continue to grow in the first two months. It is expected that the company's growth base will continue to be driven by the steady growth of high-end products from January to February; This year, the consumption prices of Baijiu provinces are hot. It is expected that the high-end products will also increase speed and speed.
2. We are optimistic about the "completion of the five-year goal ahead of schedule", and the performance certainty in 2022 is high. The company has set the tone of "seeking speed in the best way, taking the lead in the best word, and being able to be fast is fast". The 14th five year plan goal is to be completed ahead of schedule, and various measures are expected to be accelerated in 2022; If equity incentive is implemented, its brand potential energy and profit elasticity will also be accelerated. At present, the four opening and two-way opening still fully benefit from the mainstream price band of Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) yuan in the province; At the same time, the company has set up a new V99 alliance to select dealers inside and outside the province, sort out the V3 price system, and undertake the business demand of 1000 yuan price band in the province through V9 Business Edition. It is expected that V series will continue to contribute to the increment in the future. It is optimistic that the company will complete the five-year goal ahead of schedule, and the probability rate will achieve rapid growth in 2022.
3. The secondary high-end continues to expand, and the company's product structure is accurate, which will fully benefit in the future. In the long run, for the problems of unfavorable expansion outside the province and intensified competition in the province that the market has been concerned about for a long time, we believe that in the future, even if we do not consider expansion outside the province, the strengthening of weak areas in the province and the sinking of channels can also support the rapid growth of the company's revenue; At the same time, the company's product structure is accurate, and the sub high-end price band of the card position. Under the background of the continuous expansion of the sub high-end capacity in the Jiangsu market, it is optimistic that the company will continue to expand its revenue scale, and there is no need to worry too much about the competition in the province in the short term.
4. Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's product structure is accurate, and will continue to enjoy the secondary high-end capacity expansion dividend in the future. The good landing of equity incentives will also bring catalysis. We continue to be optimistic about the future growth of the company. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.66/2.08/2.64 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 29 / 23 / 18 times respectively, giving a "buy" rating.
5. Risk tips: 1) repeated epidemics lead to the inhibition of consumption; 2) Increased market competition leads to increased costs; 3) the sharp fluctuation of the economy caused the price of Baijiu to slide; 4) The pace of product upgrading is less than expected; 5) Food safety risks. In case of any difference between the relevant data and information and the contents published by the company, the contents published by the company shall prevail.
