On the last day of 2021, the expected subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be implemented.
On December 31, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022. The notice points out that in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021; For qualified vehicles in urban public transport, road passenger transport, rental (including online car Hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airport and public service of Party and government organs, the subsidy standard will decline by 20% on the basis of 2021.
It is noteworthy that the notice specifies that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and the vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
For the latest subsidy policy, the industry has issued different voices.
industry and academia hold one word
"According to the newly released policy, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system of purchase subsidies will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale will be liberalized from the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, so as to realize the subsidy throughout the whole year. Therefore, the increment at the end of 2022 is very strong, which will inevitably promote the sharp increase of the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022." Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation of passenger cars, told the financial associated press that the sales volume of new energy passenger cars was expected to be 4.8 million in 2022. At present, it should be adjusted to 5.5 million, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars should reach about 25%; New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%.
Cui Dongshu's view was recognized by Tian yongqiu, a senior analyst in the automotive industry. "Without the current number of 2 million subsidized new energy vehicles per year, the subsidy policy in 2022 will undoubtedly add fuel to the fire. In addition, the complete termination of subsidies by the end of 2022 will trigger another round of rush buying." Tian yongqiu said that under such a background, the total sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 5 million next year. "There is no suspense to achieve the target of 25% three years ahead of schedule."
However, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Industry Association, held a different view from the above two experts. "(2022) it is expected that the subsidy policy will decline by 30%. Both the strength of the decline and the time of exit have grasped a good rhythm." In Xu Haidong's view, the amount of subsidy policy currently implemented is not high, and the 30% decline next year will have little impact. At the same time, although the battery cost is high, the final decision on the selling price is still a market factor, and with the overall expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the cost will be further amortized. Therefore, the newly promulgated subsidy policy will not bring significant changes to the new energy vehicle market in 2022. "As for the 'rush buying tide' (triggered by the policy), it will not become the mainstream."
"At present, the sales of (new energy vehicles) have basically entered the market track, and the subsidy has little impact." Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and chairman of China Electric Vehicle Association, believes that although there is no subsidy, non subsidy policies such as double points, carbon emissions and travel restrictions will still play a role. At the same time, with the rise of oil prices, the use cost of fuel vehicles increases compared with electric vehicles. "Therefore, the impact of the decline of subsidies will not be too great."
many OEMs "stand still"
In fact, as a basic element of the market, new energy vehicle enterprises have predicted this policy and made corresponding adjustments.
On the day of the release of the policy, Tesla announced that the price of the rear drive version of model 3 was adjusted to RMB 265652, an increase of RMB 10000 compared with the previous price; The price of model y rear drive version was adjusted to 3018400 yuan, an increase of 2108800 yuan compared with the previous price.
Although Tesla did not explain the price adjustment, on November 24, Tesla explained the model 3 / y price increase at that time - due to the expectation of the adjustment of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2022.
Unlike Tesla, which is particularly sensitive to price and cost, more new energy vehicle enterprises in China choose "internal digestion". "The average selling price of our models is more than 400000 yuan. The downhill policy next year will not have an impact on the selling price." A senior official of Weilai automobile told the associated press of finance.
Similar to Weilai automobile, Xiaopeng automobile recently announced that it would launch the "time limited price protection policy" from January 1 to January 10, 2022. Consumers who complete the deposit payment during the above period can enjoy the comprehensive subsidy. After that, the recommended retail price will remain unchanged from 2021.
Although there is only a 10 day "price protection" period, in the view of industry analysts, Xiaopeng's move is to show "sincerity" to consumers and to wait and see its competitors. "But the final price adjustment is unlikely." The person said.
"The market has long expected the decline of subsidy policy." Although no prediction has been made on the price change, the high-level position of the head car enterprise of an independent new energy brand in China seems to have a clear idea of the price, "the policy will promote the growth of the new energy vehicle market in 2022."
"It's good for us." Shen Hui, founder and chairman of Weima automobile, also expressed his attitude.
In Cui Dongshu's view, since the technical index system framework and threshold requirements of the subsidy policy remain unchanged, and the battery technology is improving, the policy mainly promotes the significant growth of the scale of new energy vehicles, which reflects the strong support of the policy for the transformation of the traditional vehicle industry, which is the strong support of the unexpected new energy policy.
(Financial Associated Press)
