\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Event overview
The company announced that from January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 120% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 465 million yuan, an increase of about 130% over the same period last year.
Analysis and judgment:
1. The income exceeded expectations. The revenue from January to February has reached 1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about + 120%, and the progress is more than expected. Analysis reason: in our previous report, we predicted that the company would further move forward the sales rhythm in 2022, and we maintained this judgment for the situation from January to February. Nevertheless, we believe that the more important revenue growth comes from the positive dynamic sales of original customers and the continuous development of new customers. Considering that Henan, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, important markets, were plagued by local epidemics during the Spring Festival, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) overall development momentum is still very strong.
2. The market health of ginseng wine is good. From January to February, the company focused on payment collection and dynamic sales. On January 14, the internal ginseng sales company issued a notice to reduce the quota of internal ginseng wine. According to the third-party research data, the price of internal ginseng has remained stable since January 2022. Combined with the strong revenue growth from January to February and the steady increase of price and volume, we judge that the overall market health of internal reference is good.
3. The upgrading of product structure raises the overall net interest rate of the company. From January to February, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company increased year-on-year. Considering the high revenue base of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series last year, we judge that the revenue growth rate of internal ginseng wine from January to February is higher than that of the company as a whole, and the proportion of revenue increases, thus raising the overall net interest rate. We judge that this trend will appear in 2022, and the profit elasticity is expected to be better than 2021.
Investment advice
From January to February, the strong performance growth of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) company exceeded our expectations and achieved an encouraging start. We raised the company’s revenue forecast of 3.4/46.8/6.12 billion yuan to 3.4/48.1/6.29 billion yuan in 202123, the net profit attributable to the parent company forecast of 9.2/13.5/1.81 billion yuan to 9.2/14.2/1.88 billion yuan, and the EPS forecast of 2.83/4.16/5.57 yuan to 2.83/4.36/5.8 yuan. Corresponding to the closing price of 160.6 yuan on March 10, 2022, the P / E is 57 / 37 / 28 times respectively. The recent stock price correction range is large and has been underestimated. The buy rating is reiterated.
Risk warning: expansion of the epidemic affects Baijiu consumption and food safety risks.
