\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) announce the 21 year performance express. In 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 66.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a net profit of 23.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, mainly due to the continuous growth of the volume and price of the company’s core products. The performance is in line with our expectations.
Key points supporting rating
In 2021, the revenue increased by 15.0%, with a relatively stable growth. The price of the general five prices increased steadily, digesting the historical inventory. (1) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 21 year revenue growth ranked lower among listed companies. Unlike sub high-end and mid-range wines, the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) report in 2020 was less affected by the epidemic, so it did not show the elasticity brought by squatting and jumping in 2021. From another perspective, compared with the two-year compound growth rate of 1-3Q21 in Baijiu company, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) increased by 16%, ranking fourth, but in fact it is not bad. (2) In the past 21 years, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) liquor has maintained a strong sales trend. The increase in the proportion of group purchase and the increment brought by the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) liquor, we judge that the five volume and price at the end of the report can increase. In terms of terminal performance, the price of puwu rose steadily, with a batch price of 960970 yuan in the fourth quarter, with little change year-on-year. We judge that this year the company’s actual requirements for prices are not high, and the control strength is significantly weaker than that in the past two years. In the past 21 years, the company mainly focused on quantity and digested historical inventory. (3) Channel capacity continues to upgrade. According to the dealer conference, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 21 years, 5300 high-quality terminals were newly absorbed, 1600 low-quality terminals were optimized and adjusted, nearly 30000 key enterprises were visited with dealers, and nearly 70% of enterprises realized group purchase. (4) 3q21 and 4q21 revenue increased by 10.6% and 11.1% respectively. The growth slowed down in the second half of the year, mainly affected by the high base and digestion of historical inventory.
The new senior management team has taken shape, and will be light and strong again in 22 years. (1) In February and March of 22, the company successively issued a number of personnel appointment and removal announcements, and the new senior management team took shape. With the stability of personnel, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will start a new journey. (2) In the past few years, the channel capacity has been continuously upgraded, the company’s team has completed the transformation to the terminal, the personnel has been continuously expanded and the combat effectiveness has been strengthened. In the long run, we judge that the proportion of group purchase will gradually approach the traditional channel. (3) Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is worth looking forward to and is expected to become a strategic single product. At present, it is still in the period of price exploration. With the improvement of consumer awareness, classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is expected to find an appropriate price balance between pumao and puwu.
Valuation
EPS is expected to be 6.01 yuan and 7.01 yuan in 21-22 years, with a year-on-year increase of 16.9% and 16.6%. There are many differences on Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the market, including terminal dynamic sales, team running in, etc. it is expected that the quarterly performance and terminal performance will gradually eliminate the doubts of the market and maintain the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations. Channel inventory is on the high side.
