\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) )
Event: the company released the operating data from January to February 2022. From January to February, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 2.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year.
From January to February, the profit margin was flat year-on-year and significantly improved month on month, exceeding expectations. From January to February, the company achieved an increase of about 20% in revenue and net profit attributable to the parent compared with the same period last year. The net interest rate attributable to the parent was about 18.3%, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year. Q3 and Q4 (deduction) increased by about 9.3pct and 12.2pct month on month compared with the same period last year. The month on month improvement was significant. The profit margin from January to February exceeded expectations.
Lower discounts, high growth of offline sales and improvement of category structure led to a significant improvement in gross profit margin from January to February. Since January this year, the company has taken the initiative to reduce the intensity of discount promotion. Taking cosmetics as an example, it has adjusted from the 30% discount level of Q4 to the 75% and 20% discount levels. From January to February, driven by the holidays and the phased easing of the epidemic, the passenger flow in Hainan increased significantly by more than 30%, which led to a significant recovery in the sales proportion of the company’s offline stores (the proportion of online taxable business was relatively low), a further improvement in the proportion of boutique sales, and a significant rebound in the gross profit margin driven by the structure.
Strengthen the pursuit of profit expectation this year and give consideration to the balance between profit and sales. We believe that the good performance of the business performance from January to February has strengthened the expectation of the company’s pursuit of profit this year, and the transition from the stable market share last year to the balance between profit and sales this year. Although the epidemic situation in China rebounded significantly in March or brought large fluctuations in short-term operation, we believe that we need to pay more attention to the marginal change trend of the company’s subjective kinetic energy and competitive environment. By seeking benefits from management, further strengthening the advantages of categories, procurement supply chain and channels, and cooperating with the further recovery of offline passenger flow, competitors’ demand for profit is also increasing. The continuous improvement of the company’s gross profit margin and profit margin in 22 years is worth looking forward to.
Investment suggestion: the company is expected to achieve EPS of 4.91/6.38/8.50 yuan in 21-23 years, corresponding to 38 / 29 / 22 times of the latest PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: repeated impact of the epidemic, intensified tax-free competition on outlying islands, and continued decline in consumption capacity.
