\u3000\u3000 China Stock Market News ( East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued a performance express. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 13.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58.94%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 8.553 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 79.00%, which was equivalent to 99.7% of our previous forecast. Weighted average roe22 11%, yoy + 4.22pct. Based on this, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 is 2.319 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 67.99% and a month on month increase of - 7.53%
Performance attribution: both consignment business and securities business increased year-on-year. [consignment business] according to the company's announcement, the fund consignment amount and the holding scale of the consignment fund increased significantly year-on-year, and the company's consignment business increased significantly. We expect that the company's annual fund consignment amount in 2021 will exceed 2.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 70.77%, which is roughly the same as that of H121. The stock mixed fund of q421 Tiantian fund has a holding scale of 537.1 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 10.9%, and the non monetary fund has a holding scale of 673.9 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 16.5%, both ranking second to independent fund sales institutions (second only to ant Fund). As of March 11, there were 174 fund companies and 7494 products sold by Tiantian fund on a commission basis, ranking first among all commission agencies, an increase of 2 and 614 respectively compared with the beginning of this year. [securities business] in 2021, the average daily turnover of A-Shares was 1.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32%, and the average daily balance of Liangrong was 1.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32%. The trading in the capital market was very active, superimposing the company's Internet traffic advantages, promoting the high growth of the company's brokerage, Liangrong and other securities businesses.
Scarce targets with flow advantages, liquidity and capital strength: Dongcai + daily active users are still far ahead of other securities apps, reserving huge customer resources for the company; The liquidity of securities brokerage, two financing, fund consignment and other licenses is outstanding, and the proportion of brokerage and two financing market can still be improved. On February 28, the closing date of "Dongcai Zhuan 3" share conversion, the total issuance amount of 15.8 billion yuan was basically converted into shares, the capital strength of the company was significantly improved, and the company strongly supported the development of heavy capital businesses such as dual financing and self investment.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the potential for sustained and high growth of the company's performance and maintain the profit forecast unchanged. The company's 2021e PE is 29.68x, which is at an absolute low in recent five years. The company has defeated the question of overestimation with high performance growth for several times in history. We believe that the company may get out of the "double-click" trend of valuation recovery and performance growth in the future and maintain "buy-b".
Risk tip: the capital market scene continues to decline, market volatility intensifies, and the issuance of new funds is less than expected.
