\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Matters:
The announcement of the company: in 2022, the overall market sales are good, the medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series have achieved substantial growth, and the operating revenue and net profit have reached the best level in history; From January to February 2022, it is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than RMB 7.4 billion (year-on-year + 35%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of more than RMB 2.7 billion (year-on-year + 50%).
Guoxin Food & Beverage’s view: 1) from January to February, the performance was successful, and the sales momentum of Qinghua and Bofen continued to be rapid; 2) The company’s brand and channel potential are continuously improved, and its performance is expected to be realized steadily; 3) Investment suggestion: the company has a steady pace of high-end and nationalization, and is optimistic about the certainty of the company’s medium and long-term growth. We expect the company’s operating revenue to be 20.64/27.32/34.3 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 54.1/76.5/10.01 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS to be 4.43/6.27/8.21 yuan, and the corresponding PE to the current stock price to be 62 / 44 / 33x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Comments:
From January to February, the opening performance was fulfilled, and the sales momentum of Qinghua and Bofen continued to be rapid
In the Spring Festival of 2022, the company’s payment collection and dynamic sales performance are outstanding (the proportion of payment collection is expected to be about 30%), ensuring a good start. The growth rate of performance from January to February was slightly higher than expected, mainly benefiting from the continued large-scale increase of blue and white series to drive the improvement of product structure. We expect the proportion of blue and white series to rise to 40 ~ 50% in January. According to the channel feedback, the price of Qinghua 30 revival edition will be increased by 100 yuan / bottle in March (at present, the price is 969 yuan / bottle, and the new price will be implemented after the goods are stopped). At the same time, this year, Bofen will strictly implement the contract system (the annual expected volume will be flat or reduced). Considering that the peak sales of Bofen will not be significantly reduced during the Spring Festival, the proportion of Qinghua series may be further improved during the year, which will promote the continuous release of performance elasticity.
The company’s performance and brand are expected to improve steadily
The nationalization of the company is progressing smoothly. At present, the Fenjiu billion yuan market has increased to 22, the number of dealers outside the province has increased by 30.5% year-on-year, and the number of controllable terminals has risen to 1.05 million. Looking forward to the whole year, under the background of stabilizing demand in the province, Qinghua and laobaifen are expected to continue to grow steadily, and the high-speed growth momentum of Qinghua in East and South China markets outside the province is not reduced. According to the feedback of previous research, the growth rate of the company’s bottom line target in 2022 is about 25% (within the province ~ 15%, around Shanxi ~ 25% +, south of the Yangtze River ~ 50% +). Combined with the good performance at the beginning, we believe that the annual target is expected to be exceeded. The strategic thinking and growth path of the company’s high-end and nationalization are clear, the market potential continues to rise, the change of senior executives does not hinder the pace of the company’s development, the company’s goal of 22 years is better structure and better efficiency, the cost rate is expected to decline slightly, the profit margin is further improved, and the future performance is expected to be realized steadily.
Investment suggestion: the company has a steady pace of high-end and nationalization, and maintains the “buy” rating
Optimistic about the certainty of the company’s medium and long-term growth, combined with the company’s performance forecast and fine-tuning the previous profit forecast, we expect the company’s operating revenue to be 20.64/27.32/34.3 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 5.41/76.5/10.01 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS to be 4.43/6.27/8.21 yuan (the previous value was 4.56/6.22/8.21 yuan), and the corresponding current share price PE to be 62 / 44 / 33x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuation, the risk of large-scale recurrence of the epidemic, and the risk that the demand for high-end wine is lower than expected.
