\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 04 Sichuan Tianyi Comheart Telecom Co.Ltd(300504) )
Events
The company released the performance forecast for 21 years, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 175190 million yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 58.83% - 72.45%.
At the same time, the company recently announced several operator orders: 1) it won the bid for the emergency centralized procurement project of smart home gateway products of China Mobile from 2022 to 2023, with GPON dual band wi-fi5 accounting for 10.45%, and the estimated winning amount is 171 million yuan, including tax, and GPON dual band wi-fi6 accounting for 14.02%, and the estimated winning amount is 157 million yuan, including tax; 2) China Mobile won the bid for centralized procurement of optical splitter products in 2022, with a bid winning share of 18.85%. The bid winning amount is expected to be 50 million yuan, excluding tax.
Our comments are as follows:
As an important bottom entry of the digital economy, the construction of Gigabit broadband has been promoted rapidly under the promotion of policies.
The 14th five year plan for the communication industry clearly requires that the number of 10gpon and above ports be increased from 3.2 million in 2020 to 12 million in 2025 (ports refer to the office computer room, which can cover many terminals through PON network), and the number of Gigabit broadband users is expected to increase from 6.4 million in 2020 to 60 million in 2025. According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, By the end of 2021, China's Gigabit broadband users had reached 34.56 million, with a net increase of 28.16 million. The construction of Gigabit broadband began to increase rapidly. From the perspective of stock upgrading space, the total number of broadband users in China is 536 million, and the penetration rate of Gigabit broadband is only 6.4%. The construction of Gigabit broadband is expected to develop continuously in the future.
Based on the optical communication and mobile communication industries, the company continues to optimize the customer structure of the operator market, focusing on the increase in demand and value driven by the upgrading of Gigabit broadband.
The company is a major supplier of broadband access equipment in China. With the promotion of the construction of Gigabit broadband, the company's demand for access equipment continues to grow, and the sales proportion of key products with higher value such as 10gpon and wi-fi6 gradually increases, promoting the continuous growth of the company's revenue and profit. The company consolidated and strengthened its market competitiveness in the three major operator markets, won the bidding of China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) Tianyi gateway 4.0, won the bidding of some provincial branches of China Mobile Group and China United Network Communications Limited(600050) bidding / recruitment, optimized the customer structure and enhanced the company's anti risk ability.
Focus on the needs of operators, expand 5g small base stations, VR / AR, smart home and other fields horizontally, and open up greater growth space
In the 5g field, the company has laid out 5gcpe and small base station products. The 5g small base station mainly researched and developed has entered the operator test stage, and the test is progressing smoothly. On the other hand, the VR terminal of the company has entered the product library of China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) and has the sales qualification in China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) ; In addition, the company invested in Shanghai lipai optical crystal technology Co., Ltd., the upstream core optical component supplier of AR, to make technical reserves for the AR field. In the field of smart home, the company continues to promote the R & D and marketing of smart doorbell and IPC camera. The company continues to cultivate the needs of operators, further enrich the product layout and open up long-term growth space.
Investment advice and profit forecast
The company has been deeply involved in the optical communication market for many years, and important orders from operators continue to land. The company is expected to benefit from the continuous growth of the value of wi-6 devices and Gigabit network operators, as well as the continuous growth of the company's new wi-6 technology. Driven by the dual Gigabit strategy and other policies, the demand for key products such as 10gpon exceeded expectations, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years was adjusted from 160 million, 200 million and 260 million yuan to 180 million, 230 million and 280 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 24 times and 19 times P / E ratio in 22-23 years, reiterating the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the demand is low, the market competition exceeds the expectation, the price of raw materials rises and is out of stock. The actual implementation progress of the winning project is subject to the final contract, the performance forecast is the preliminary calculation, and the actual performance is subject to the annual report
