\u3000\u30 Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.Ltd(003003) 47 Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) )
Key investment points
Event: 1) on March 10, 2022, the company released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 5.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.32%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.874 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.26%, and a deduction of non net profit of 1.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.90%; 2) The company released the main operating data. From January to February 2022, the newly signed orders of the company increased by more than 65% year-on-year, and the operating revenue increased by more than 100% year-on-year.
In 2021, the revenue exceeded expectations and the performance was at the upper limit of the forecast, showing an accelerated recovery trend. On a quarterly basis, it is estimated that the operating revenue of 2021q4 will be 1.819 billion yuan (+ 103.91%), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 1.093 billion yuan (+ 153.18%), and the non net profit deducted in 2021q4 will be 363 million yuan (+ 72.19%), which still maintains the accelerated growth trend under the high base trend in the second half of last year. We expect that it is mainly due to the accelerated recovery of the main business and the accelerated fulfillment of covid-19 orders. In addition, the growth rate of parent company is higher than that of non deduction, which is mainly due to the higher income from changes in the fair value of financial assets recognized by the company in accordance with the new standards for financial instruments in non recurring profits and losses.
In January and February 2022, the operating data continued to shine, the growth of revenue and new orders exceeded expectations, and the annual growth is expected to continue to be high. ① The revenue from January to February exceeded expectations. We expect that it is mainly due to the continuous release of new orders with continuous high growth (2021h1 year-on-year + 150.82%). ② In addition, the number of newly signed orders continued to increase from January to February, which we believe is mainly due to the continuous transmission of the high boom of China's preclinical cro to the downstream clinical cro. As a leader in China, the company is expected to take the lead in benefiting.
In the long run: ① with the accelerated growth of clinical cro Prosperity: Chinese clinical cros are relatively scattered. As the high prosperity of Chinese preclinical cros continues to transmit to downstream clinical cros, the company, as the leader of Chinese clinical cros, will fully enjoy the trend of rapid development and concentration improvement of the industry. ② The global layout is expected to bring new increment: the company is expected to expand its clinical cro business globally and gradually become a new growth point by accompanying the internationalization of Chinese innovative drugs to the sea and gradually completing the layout in the Asia Pacific region.
Profit forecast and Valuation: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.338 billion yuan, 5.636 billion yuan and 7.240 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.89%, 29.93% and 28.45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.813 billion yuan, 3.335 billion yuan and 3.838 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 60.76%, 18.55% and 15.10%. The company is the leader of clinical cro in China, with prominent competitive advantage and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning events: the public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update; Risk of loss of core technical personnel; Risk of industry R & D investment falling short of expectations; The risk that overseas business integration does not meet expectations; Industry competition intensifies risks.
