\u3000\u3 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 205 Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) )
2021 earnings meet expectations
In 2021, the Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) operating revenue was 613 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, slightly higher than expected, mainly due to the new commodity sales business; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, in line with expectations. From 2020h2 to 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter is about 30 million yuan, which is consistent with the stable scale of transportation capacity. We believe that the fluctuation mainly comes from changes in fuel costs and management expenses. Taking into account fleet expansion, rising oil prices and expanding commodity sales business (which will lead to substantial growth in operating revenue, but low gross profit margin and little impact on net profit), maintain the predicted EPS of 1.43 and 1.9 yuan in 202223 and increase the predicted EPS of 2.29 yuan in 2024. Maintain the target price of 48.86 yuan and maintain the "buy" rating.
The fleet is expected to expand rapidly
With the gradual implementation of the raised investment project, the company will purchase five liquid dangerous cargo ships in coastal provinces. The five new ships approved in 20202021 will be put into operation from 2022. The company will purchase market stock ships to expand its fleet, and it is expected to control the scale of ships to reach 30 by the end of 2022. In the follow-up, the company will continue to increase the scale of transport capacity by applying for new transport capacity to build ships and purchasing market stock ships. It is planned that the scale of the company's fleet will reach 50 by the end of 2025. The rapid expansion of transport capacity is expected to drive high performance growth.
Ammonia fuel supply chain will grow rapidly
Under the requirements of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, liquid ammonia with zero emission, sufficient supply and convenient storage and transportation is expected to become an important clean energy, and the demand will usher in rapid growth, which will bring strong transportation demand for liquid ammonia. Liquid ammonia transportation is in its infancy, and most of it is transported by road. Through the wholly-owned subsidiary Shengde Xinan, the company takes the liquid ammonia trade operation as the starting point, cooperates with the company's newly built liquid ammonia transport ship to layout the liquid ammonia waterway transportation business, timely layout the liquid ammonia highway transportation and wharf storage business, and finally form a four in one business pattern of liquid ammonia trade operation, waterway transportation, highway transportation and wharf storage. Shengde Xin'an, established on October 12, 2021, has an operating revenue of 32.06 million yuan in 2021. Oil price rise disturbs short-term performance
The demand for liquid cargo and dangerous goods shipping in domestic trade continued to grow rapidly, the supply showed low growth subject to review constraints, and the medium and long-term profitability increased steadily. However, short-term performance growth is disturbed by oil prices. On the one hand, the rise of oil price leads to the rise of fuel cost, and the linkage between freight rate and oil price can only cover part of the increased fuel cost. With the income and other cost factors unchanged, if the fuel cost increases by 10%, the gross profit margin will decrease by 1.47 percentage points in 2020. On the other hand, high oil prices may affect the consumption demand of chemicals, thus affecting the transportation demand, resulting in the decline of transportation capacity turnover rate and the decline of market freight rate. Fortunately, the Ministry of communications regulates and controls the scale of new transport capacity according to the transport demand every year, and the supply and demand will quickly return to a balanced state.
Risk tips: the prosperity of the chemical industry has declined, market competition has intensified, transportation capacity regulation policies have changed, fuel costs have risen rapidly, fleet expansion is less than expected, business has diversified rapidly, and safety management and environmental protection risks
