In the fourth quarter of this year, the amount of admission funds and market sentiment were significantly higher than those in the first three quarters. According to wind data, the number of capital flowing into A-Shares in the fourth quarter of this year exceeded that in the first three quarters of this year, exceeding 130 billion yuan; On the penultimate trading day of 2021, the annual turnover of A-share markets reached a new high since 2015, which can be seen from the market activity. Looking forward to 2022, institutional people generally believe that liquidity will remain loose, but economic expectations will weaken, the pressure will increase, and the market is still dominated by structural opportunities. “The market may not have very good systematic opportunities, and more market liquidity will chase scarce high boom industries.” Huang Yi, general manager of Beijing Hongfeng assets, a private placement institution, said in an exclusive interview with the securities times.
maintain confidence in leading stocks in booming industries
The time came to the last trading day of 2021. As of the closing of the day, the full day turnover was 1.06 trillion yuan. Looking back on the whole year, the turnover of the two cities reached 257 trillion yuan, exceeding the annual turnover of about 25.5 billion yuan in 2015, the highest year in history. Especially since the second half of this year, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has increased significantly, and trillion transactions have become the norm. It is worth mentioning that the proportion of public and private funds in the market trading volume has increased, reflecting the changing structure of A-share investors.
Huang Yi pointed out that with the continuous expansion of the asset management scale of public offering institutions, institutions have more and more voice in the market, and the effectiveness of the investment concept of studying and creating value and selecting high-quality companies in the market is becoming stronger and stronger. It is not difficult to find that although the trading is relatively active this year, the increase of major market indexes is not prominent. In particular, in previous years, the cluster plate differentiation was obvious, the leading stocks in some plates were still relatively depressed, and the popular “track stocks” such as new energy received great attention and popularity this year.
“Baotuan boom track leading stocks are actually the performance of the convergence of institutional investment ideas. Although there will be some adjustments in the short term, there is a strong positive correlation between the prosperity of the industry, the growth of the company’s performance and the rate of return on investment in the long term. And the longer the time, the more significant the correlation is.” For the leading stocks in the booming industry, Huang Yi still maintains confidence.
For this year’s popular track, Huang Yi has long had a layout. “At the beginning of April last year, we began to configure Tesla‘s direct upstream suppliers, such as batteries and auto parts. This year, we expanded upward along this industrial chain, reduced the positions of auto parts and batteries, and increased the upstream links of batteries, such as lithium plate, positive and negative electrodes, diaphragm, etc.” In addition, since the second half of last year, Huang Yi has also begun to intervene in the photovoltaic sector. In her opinion, under the background of carbon neutralization, the installed demand of the photovoltaic industry will further increase rapidly and significantly in the future. Therefore, she has increased the investment proportion of the photovoltaic sector and has configuration in silicon wafers, components, equipment and other fields.
there will still be structural opportunities to guard against the Fed’s monetary policy risks
For the market in 2022, institutional investors generally expressed full confidence, and even some brokerage institutions expected that the probability of the high point of the Shanghai index from 4150 to 4230 was high. However, the pressure of economic growth has generally become the consensus in the industry. “Next year, the market may not have very good systematic opportunities, but still focus on structural opportunities.” Huang Yi pointed out.
How to find structural opportunities? Huang Yi pointed out four directions: first, macroeconomic policy should be stable, fiscal policy should be in front, and infrastructure should be developed with steady growth. It is expected that new infrastructure investment will reach 2.7 trillion next year; Second, there is still room for downward market interest rates, and more market liquidity is chasing scarce high boom industries; Third, the industry is in the early stage of development, but the future development direction is relatively clear and the growth space is huge; Fourth, industries with declining performance and declining valuation this year and opportunities for bottom reversal next year. In these directions, there are still large investment opportunities next year.
However, the shift of the Fed’s monetary policy is the focus that the market has to pay attention to. “I think the shift of the Fed’s monetary policy may be a greater risk in the global financial market next year.” Huang Yi, who has worked in the central bank and has always maintained sensitivity to monetary policy, believes that if it is only to raise interest rates, the impact on US bond interest rates in the six months before the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in history is limited. However, the Fed will face a combination of “inflation + interest rate hike” next year, which will put greater pressure on US bond yields. Since 1980, under the comparable combination of “inflation + interest rate increase”, the US bond interest rate has increased by an average of 116bp, which has had a certain impact on global risk assets. Especially in the six months before and after the interest rate increase, the preference of global funds for emerging markets has decreased significantly.
Huang Yi further analyzed that although the current economic cycle and monetary policy cycle of China and the United States are not synchronized, and China’s monetary policy is more self-centered and stable, there is great upward pressure on US bond interest rates under the background of “inflation + interest rate hike”. If the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightens more than expected in the future and US bond interest rates rise more than expected, the interest rate gap between China and the United States will be squeezed rapidly, It may have a negative impact on China’s monetary policy. From the historical experience, even if the monetary policies of China and the United States deviate from the stage, the interest rate reduction cycle of the Central Bank of China will stagger the interest rate increase cycle of the Federal Reserve.
optimistic about photovoltaic, consumer electronics and other four sectors
Along the above four directions of looking for structural opportunities, Huang Yi is optimistic about the opportunities in four sectors: first, the new infrastructure sector, such as new energy infrastructure, UHV power grid construction, new energy infrastructure construction, data center, network security, etc; Second, the direction of high prosperity, such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, green power operation, semiconductors, military industry, etc; Third, in the early stage of industry development, such as content production related to meta universe, digital assets, virtual characters, hardware equipment, etc., and hydrogen energy industry chain; Fourth, reverse the direction at the bottom, such as consumer electronics, food, medicine, home appliances, etc.
As for the hot theme of carbon neutralization this year, Huang Yi believes that there is still a long investment cycle, “In this field, we will see that many excellent companies will show a development speed higher than the industry growth level, and many leading enterprises will be born, even global leaders. Although some companies have increased a lot this year, their growth path is still very long, which is a typical track with long slope and thick snow.” As for whether these companies will still have opportunities next year, Huang Yi believes that the probability is there, but there will be twists and turns, and the performance of different segments will be different. It is necessary to analyze the competition pattern and supply and demand of each link in detail. Next year, the supply side will accelerate the release of production capacity and restore the balance between supply and demand in all links of the boom track. In this environment, we should select excellent companies with high barriers, strong technology and real growth.
Huang Yi said that he is more optimistic about the photovoltaic industry next year, “This year, due to the rise in the price of upstream silicon materials, the installed capacity of photovoltaic terminals is significantly lower than expected, or even lower than last year. Towards the end of the year, we see some positive changes in the industry. The price of silicon materials has been in a downward trend for three consecutive weeks, and the price of components has fallen into the price range of terminal installable capacity. It is expected that the opportunity of terminal installation will break out next year, which will be the main and auxiliary materials of the whole photovoltaic industry chain We are very optimistic about construction and operation. ”
For the consumer industry that has experienced a double kill in performance and valuation this year, Huang Yi is relatively more optimistic about the consumer electronics sector. She believes that at present, the performance, valuation and allocation proportion of the whole consumer electronics industry are at the bottom. Next year, there are several catalytic factors worthy of attention: first, Apple has decided to increase iPhone shipments by 30% in the first half of 2022, and the annual shipments will challenge the target of 300 million units, which is expected to benefit Apple’s core suppliers significantly; Second, the emergence of new technologies and products, such as folding screen mobile phones, the latest products have been reduced to more than 7000 yuan. With the progress of technology, the cost has further decreased. Folding screen mobile phones may be a relatively large incremental market next year; Third, apple is likely to launch its first AR or Mr products in 2022. VR, AR and Mr devices, as important entrances to the meta universe, are expected to drive the full outbreak of the industry.
(Securities Times)
