\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: on March 11, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) released the annual report. In 2021, the revenue reached 3.095 billion yuan, an increase of 35.4% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 643 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.0%; In Q4 alone, the revenue was 910 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 187 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.8%.
Core view: the performance is in line with expectations (the net profit attributable to the parent company in the previous performance forecast is 580 ~ 680 million). The high performance growth is mainly due to the continuation of perc’s production expansion bonus and the steady improvement of the company’s complete equipment sales; Properly control the cost, increase the gross profit margin and enhance the profitability. Looking forward to 2022, n-type batteries will begin to replace the traditional mainstream p-type batteries, enter the parallel expansion period of multi technology routes, and continue to drive the demand for equipment. The company’s flagship product screen printing complete sets of equipment has a solid leading position in the market, and the competitive advantage of hjt core PECVD equipment is obvious. In 2021, the market share of hjt bidding is more than 60%. We believe that with the gradual advancement of hjt commercialization, hjt equipment is expected to bring new performance increment to the company. It is expected that the company will officially enter the confirmation period of hjt order revenue in 2022.
The demand for terminal installation resonates with the upgrading of photovoltaic cell technology, driving the rapid growth of the company’s revenue: according to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China reached 54.88gw in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 53.4%; The output of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery cells in China was 198gw, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9%; Thanks to the extension of the integration of the industrial chain to the battery link, as well as the technological progress driven by the upgrading of photoelectric conversion efficiency, large size, flake and automation, the rolling expansion of battery production is accelerated and the good demand for equipment is driven. By product:
(1) complete sets of photovoltaic cell equipment: the revenue was 2.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 73.4%, accounting for 85.8%, and the gross profit margin was 37.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.18 PCT. The high growth led to an increase in the proportion of revenue (about 19 PCT year-on-year). On the one hand, the company’s flagship product silk screen printing equipment enjoyed the downstream expansion dividend. In 2021, the sales and shipments were 393 and 476 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46% and 62% respectively; On the other hand, in the second half of 2021, the company completed customer acceptance of some orders for hjt equipment and began to recognize revenue. According to our model, it is expected to recognize more than 300 million yuan.
(2) single machine equipment: the revenue was 281 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 54.5%, accounting for 9.1%, and the gross profit margin was 32.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of -1.12pct. Stand alone business refers to all kinds of non complete sets of equipment sold separately, involving a wide range of categories, including screen printing machines, photovoltaic lasers, panel lasers, coating equipment, automation equipment, etc. In 2021, the company achieved a breakthrough in orders in the field of semiconductor packaging and display panels, mainly including orders for semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment of Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) and OLED laser cutting equipment of BOE. Under the company’s “three horizontal and three vertical” layout, it is expected to further optimize the revenue structure in the future.
The improvement of gross profit margin leads to the enhancement of profitability and attaches importance to R & D to realize rapid iteration of products: ① gross profit margin: in 2021, the overall gross profit margin of the company was 38.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.28pct. From the price side, the product quality of the company was excellent, the high-quality customers were carefully selected, the position of the industrial chain was highlighted, and the price remained basically stable during the reporting period; From the cost side, the company’s cost control effect is remarkable. On the one hand, large-scale centralized purchase improves the bargaining power, on the other hand, it continues to research and develop cost reduction and replace domestic raw materials and parts. ② Net interest rate: in 2021, the company’s net sales interest rate was 20.3%, a year-on-year increase of + 3.32pct. During the period, the expense rate was 19.18%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.93pct. The sales, management, R & D and finance were + 1.36pct, -1.38pct, + 3.45pct and -1.5pct respectively. The R & D expense rate increased significantly. The scale of R & D expense reached 330 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 99.7%, accounting for 10.75% of revenue, a record high. The company attaches importance to R & D, promotes product iteration, improves the quality and reduces the cost of screen printing equipment, successfully develops and ships the third generation hjt large capacity microcrystalline silicon core equipment, and makes breakthroughs in the R & D of panel / semiconductor laser equipment.
It is estimated that the parallel expansion of N / P battery multi technology routes in 2022 will stimulate the demand for equipment and ensure the continuous growth of the company’s performance: from the perspective of forward-looking indicators, the company’s contract liabilities by the end of 2021 were 2.405 billion yuan, an increase of 50.5% year-on-year, an increase of 9.5% month on month compared with the third quarter, and the scale of on-hand orders continued to expand. Looking forward to 2022, the dividend of p-type perc battery has not subsided. China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that the average conversion efficiency will still increase steadily at the rate of 0.2% / year. Due to the mature technology, it is expected to maintain its mainstream battery technology position in 2022; N-type TOPCON and hjt batteries are expected to enter the stage of accelerated permeability improvement, forming a pattern of parallel production expansion of multiple technical routes. ① Mainstream enterprises still take perc and its extended TOPCON as the main production expansion direction: considering factors such as technical maturity, cost performance and capacity replacement, mainstream enterprises with large cumulative capacity prefer to build / upgrade TOPCON capacity. According to Jibang consulting, by the end of 21, the planned capacity of TOPCON had reached 95.3gw, 8.75gw had been built, and 86.5gw was under construction / to be built, It is expected to land 35gw in 2022; ② In terms of conversion efficiency, with the application of microcrystalline silicon technology in 2022, the mass production efficiency of hjt is expected to reach more than 25.5%; In terms of cost, the silver slurry localization / silver clad copper technology is gradually mature, and is expected to be applied in 2022 to catch up with the cost of perc. In the process of promoting the commercialization of hjt, new entrants continue to test the water, trying to occupy a place in the era of new technology and accelerate the competition in the battery industry, which will fully benefit the equipment end. According to Jibang consulting, as of the end of the 21st century, the planned capacity of hjt has reached 148.2gw, 6.35gw has been built, 141.9gw is under construction / to be built, and the landing scale is expected to be 10-20gw in 2022. From the perspective of the company: as the leader of silk screen printing in perc era, Maiwei has a stable market share of 70% and will continue to enjoy the bonus of perc + technology expansion; In terms of hjt core equipment, the company took the lead in completing mass production verification. According to the statistics of public bidding information in 2021, Maiwei’s market share of hjtpecvd equipment exceeds 60%. In the future, hjt will enter the production expansion period. Battery chip manufacturers will tend to choose verified equipment to ensure product competitiveness, and the first mover advantage of equipment dragon enterprises is expected to be amplified.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.32 billion yuan, 6.20 billion yuan and 8.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.4%, 43.7% and 43.5% respectively, and the net profit will be 856 million yuan, 1.258 billion yuan and 1.792 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.2%, 46.9% and 42.4% respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 69, 47 and 33 times respectively; Maintain the investment rating of “Buy-A”, and the six-month target price is 610 yuan, which is equivalent to 37 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2024.
Risk warning: the new downstream installed capacity is less than expected; The commercialization progress of hjt is less than expected; Competition in the equipment industry has intensified.
