\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Matters:
Company announcement: from January to February 2022, the business tasks were exceeded, and the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 120% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 465 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 130%.
Guoxin Food & Beverage’s view: 1) the performance has made a good start and kicked off the steady growth of the annual performance; 2) The product structure continues to be optimized, and the national exchange volume growth is expected to continue; 3) Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the internal participation brand, which can continue to lead the high growth of the company. At present, the brand power and channel power of the company are continuously improving, and the national volume of internal participation and drunkard series is getting better and better, which is expected to boost the continuous and steady growth of the company’s performance. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.40/48.1/6.26 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 9.2/14.0/1.98 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 2.84/4.30/6.08 yuan, and the corresponding current share price PE will be 57 / 37 / 26x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Comments:
The performance made a good start and kicked off the steady growth of the annual performance
Combined with channel feedback, during the Spring Festival of 22 years, the company’s payment collection and dynamic sales performance were outstanding (the proportion of payment collection is expected to be about 40 ~ 50%), laying a good foundation for high performance growth. In terms of the products, growth momentum of the domestic participants and drunkards is not decreasing, and overall dynamic sales feedback is positive. We expect that growth rate of the income of the domestic participants and drunkards will be about doubled from January to February, and overall product structure will remain stable. In terms of subregions, the growth inside the province is stable and the growth outside the province is rapid. On the one hand, the growth outside the province is due to the coverage of blank areas, on the other hand, there are more Spring Festival payments in the old market. It is expected that the proportion of income outside the province will increase slightly from January to February. Before the Spring Festival, the internal reference price declined due to the impact of centralized delivery and fleeing. The company responded quickly and took measures such as reduction, price increase and strict investigation to raise the price. The price picked up during the Spring Festival. At present, the company’s strategy is still to stabilize the price and increase the volume. In the off-season, it focuses on controlling the quantity and supporting the price. The price is expected to rise steadily in the future.
The product structure continues to be optimized, and the national exchange volume growth is expected to continue
At the product level, the internal participation brand and channel are expected to continue to rise, with full volume potential. At present, the internal participation revenue accounts for nearly 30%, and the internal participation proportion is expected to further increase throughout the year; The drunkard series enjoys the secondary high-end expansion bonus, which is also expected to continue high growth, and the profit margin may be improved under the control of volume and price. At the regional level, in the past 22 years, the company has continued to adhere to the strategy of strengthening the base market, creating a highland market and deepening nationalization, made great efforts to promote the sinking of county and township channels in the province, and continued to improve the investment promotion layout outside the province. In terms of performance, the company’s sales pace in the past 22 years has been advanced, and the subsequent performance is expected to slow down gradually and steadily. We expect the growth rate of revenue performance in the first quarter to be about 80%. Throughout the year, the company’s performance is still expected to maintain rapid growth on the basis of the continuous improvement of brand potential and the sinking of investment attraction and channels.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the potential of internal reference brands to continue to rise, lead the high growth of the company and maintain the “buy” rating
At present, the company is expected to participate in the steady growth of domestic channels, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to improve. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.40/48.1/6.26 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 9.2/14.0/1.98 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 2.84/4.30/6.08 yuan, and the corresponding current share price PE will be 57 / 37 / 26x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuation, the risk of large-scale recurrence of the epidemic, and the risk that the demand for high-end wine is lower than expected.
