\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 371 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) )
Key investment points
Operation from January to February 2022: revenue + 135% and orders + 60% year-on-year; The prosperity of the beneficiary industries has improved
1) according to the announcement of the company. According to the company’s preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 135%, and the growth rate was higher than expected; New orders exceeded 3 billion yuan (if annualized, it is expected to reach 18 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of more than 60%, providing guarantee for the company’s future performance. From January to February, the company’s business performance was high, and it is expected to mainly benefit from the increase of downstream semiconductor industry demand + the increase of company share, and the development of two wheel drive company.
2) the prosperity of semiconductor equipment will be improved, and the company will fully benefit as the leader of domestic equipment. According to semi, global semiconductor equipment sales will exceed US $100 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 44.7%. TSMC expects capital expenditure of US $40-44 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of about 40% over US $30 billion last year. In the context of the rising prosperity of global semiconductor equipment, mainland wafer factories are still small and are expected to accelerate the expansion of production, with large domestic substitution space. As the leader of domestic semiconductor equipment, the company occupies a core position in the domestic semiconductor industry chain. It is expected to fully benefit from the prosperity of the equipment market + domestic substitution process in the future. 3) Performance in 2021: it is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be 8.48-10.9 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 40% – 80%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 940-1.21 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 75% – 125%); The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was RMB 690890 million (a year-on-year increase of 250% – 350%). The company’s semiconductor equipment and electronic components business has achieved sustained growth, and the core benefit is the high growth of semiconductor prosperity and strong demand in 2021.
How to treat the reasonable market value range of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) ? Market value ratio (and applied materials) hub has upward space
1) referring to the competition pattern of semiconductor equipment at home and abroad, we believe that the company should take the applied materials as the anchor to conduct benchmarking analysis. Since 2017, the market value of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) has increased by more than 12 times and the market value of applied materials has increased by about 3.5 times. The market is worried that there is limited room for the short-term improvement of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) market value. However, we believe that the core driving factor of the company’s rise is more from the beta market brought by the improvement of industry prosperity than the valuation premium given by the market to the company’s leading semiconductor equipment companies.
2) we established three major indicators for analysis: we found that the revenue increased by 3.9 times compared with ratio in the past six years, and the sales of semiconductor equipment in China increased by 3.3 times. However, the market value of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) / applied materials is only 3.6 times higher than that of ratio, and has maintained a sideways fluctuation of 9% – 28% in recent three years, which is currently in the central quantile of 18%. In the industry beta + company alpha two wheel drive (the average growth rate of China’s semiconductor equipment sales in the past five years is 17.4% higher than that of the world, and the average growth rate of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) revenue is 35.3% higher than that of Applied Materials), we believe that the theoretical Market value has room for improvement than the central market.
Investment suggestion: at present, the market value is 18% higher than raito, which has room for upward improvement
It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 9.8 billion / 14.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 61% / 45% / 42% and a compound annual growth rate of 49%. Over the past three years, the market value ratio of Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) / applied materials has remained in the horizontal fluctuation range of 9% – 28%, and the center (18%) has not moved up significantly. We believe that the market value ratio has room for upward improvement. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the downstream expansion is less than the expected risk; The risk of product R & D falling short of expectations; Trade friction risk.
