\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 761 Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) )
Events
On March 9, the company released the performance express for 2021: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 15.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 13%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%; The weighted roe is 11%.
Key investment points
The annual revenue growth is in line with expectations, and the profitability is under pressure due to the impact of raw material prices and active sales policies
In Q4 of 2021, China's economic situation is steadily improving, and the market demand for forklifts continues to increase; Driven by the continuous improvement of market demand for lithium and other new energy forklifts and the outbreak of export orders, the company's revenue has achieved steady growth. In 2021, driven by the high growth of class III vehicle sales, the company is expected to achieve a growth rate of about 30% in the whole machine sales in 2020, and the annual forklift sales are expected to be more than 280000. As the main raw material, the price of steel has continued to rise since Q4 in 2020, and the cost of the company has continued to rise; In the same period, the company adopted an active sales policy focusing on increasing market share, resulting in a pressure on the net profit margin in 2021. While the revenue increased rapidly, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent decreased.
The impact of raw material prices is expected to gradually weaken and the proportion of export sales is expected to increase. It is expected that the profitability of the company will stabilize and recover
Since Q4 in 2021, the steel price has shown a downward trend first. The company can effectively control the cost fluctuation by locking the price in advance, and the large-scale cost advantage is obvious. We believe that the company, as an industry leader, has strong bargaining power and is expected to transmit pressure to the downstream by means of increasing the terminal price of products. In 2022, the impact of raw material prices on the company is expected to gradually weaken, the cost pressure will be gradually transmitted downward, and the company's profitability is expected to stabilize and recover. In 2021, the export sales volume of forklift industry increased by more than 85%. In 2021, H company's export sales accounted for 21%. We expect that the company's export sales will increase to 25 +% in 2021 and is expected to reach 30 +% in the future.
The total sales volume of forklift industry maintains a high growth rate, and the market share of the company is still expected to increase with the trend of electrification
In 2021, the sales volume of forklifts in the whole industry was 1.1 million, with a year-on-year increase of 37%; China's sales volume was 780000 units, a year-on-year increase of 27%; The export sales volume was 320000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 74%. The demand for forklifts continued to be strong. In 2021, the total sales volume of lithium forklifts in the industry was 330000, with a year-on-year increase of 106%. The substitution trend of electric forklifts for internal combustion forklifts is obvious. The company has maintained the first market share in the forklift industry for 30 consecutive years and continued to invest in R & D in line with the trend of electrification. With the expansion of production capacity and the continuous improvement of intelligent production line, we expect that the growth rate of sales and revenue of the company in 2022 is expected to be higher than that of the industry, and the market share is expected to be further improved.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 630 / 870 / 1060 million from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of - 13 / 37% / 22%, corresponding to 12 / 9 / 7 times of the current PE. The company's valuation is lower than the industry average and is expected to be gradually repaired. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The growth rate of macroeconomic and manufacturing investment was lower than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Deterioration of industry competition pattern
